Tensions Rise After September 19 Agreement Cancellation... "Self-Harming Security" vs. "Need for Corresponding Measures"

Im Jong-seok "We Will Suffer Greater Damage"
Taeyoung Ho "Unavoidable Safety Measures for the Capital Area"

North Korea has declared a full annulment of the September 19 Inter-Korean Military Agreement (hereinafter the 9·19 Agreement) and begun restoration work on guard posts (GPs) within the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), while our military has declared it will take "corresponding measures," escalating military tensions between the two Koreas. In response, opposition parties have criticized our government's actions for providing the cause for North Korea's rearmament, while ruling parties have defended the government's measures as justified.

Im Jong-seok, former Chief of Staff to the Blue House under the Moon Jae-in administration, posted on his social media on the 28th an article titled "Self-harming Security and Subtractive Diplomacy," stating, "Troops and heavy weapons are being redeployed to the GPs, and the opening of coastal artillery is rapidly increasing. Military exercises near the Demilitarized Zone and the Northern Limit Line (NLL) will also become more frequent," and warned, "We will suffer greater damage."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

After our government partially suspended the effectiveness of the 9·19 Agreement, the North declared the agreement null and began restoring the GPs. Im pointed out that our partial suspension effectively gave North Korea an excuse to break the agreement. He said, "For North Korea, it was like being slapped when they wanted to cry," adding, "Due to mutual restrictions, North Korea was much more constrained in intelligence gathering. While we could conduct reconnaissance on North Korea from medium and high altitudes through the ROK-US combined forces, North Korea found it difficult."

Kim Seong-hwan, a member of the Democratic Party of Korea, also criticized on YTN's "News & Issue" program, saying, "Wasn't the 9·19 Agreement made in 2018 to prevent accidental military clashes? Especially symbolically, the South and North each blew up frontline GPs within the DMZ to reduce accidental clashes. Isn't it the government's responsibility to manage peace? Are they properly managing the increasing accidental clashes?"

On the other hand, Tae Yong-ho, a former North Korean diplomat and member of the People Power Party, stated, "The Yoon Seok-yeol administration's partial suspension of the 9·19 Agreement in response to North Korea's military reconnaissance satellite launch was an unavoidable minimum measure to protect the safety of about 20 million people in our Seoul metropolitan area, which is only about 40 km from the Military Demarcation Line," and emphasized, "Since the North Korean military has begun rearming the GPs, there is no reason for us to delay corresponding measures."

Seong Il-jong, also from the People Power Party, emphasized the legitimacy of the government's actions on YTN, saying, "Since North Korea launched a military reconnaissance satellite, we also need to acquire intelligence in our own way. Therefore, the effectiveness of the no-fly zone area was suspended by Article 1, Clause 3 of the 9·19 Agreement."

He pointed out that while our government partially suspended the 9·19 Agreement, North Korea declared its annulment, stating, "The North has always been the first to break or declare treaties whenever they needed to. They have never engaged equally for peace between the South and North."

Following North Korea's restoration of the GPs, our military's corresponding measures have heightened military tensions, raising concerns that this could lead to North Korea's military provocations or accidental clashes. Regarding this, Jo Han-beom, senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said on YTN's "The News," "North Korea is burdened by direct military provocations," adding, "Rather than direct provocations or those with confirmed origins, provocations such as drone attacks, cyberterrorism, or those with unclear perpetrators are possible."

He also mentioned the possibility of provocations disguised as field exercises. Jo said, "From December, the North Korean military will enter winter training. They may use winter training as a pretext for ballistic missile launches or provocations disguised as field exercises," and added, "There is also a possibility of battalion-level or regiment-level exercises near the Demilitarized Zone."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.