Chilling Timing "Did They Know Again?"... $640 Million Suspicious Bet Just 15 Minutes Before Announcement

4,260 Brent Crude Sell Orders Placed
Insider Trading Suspicions Rekindled
CFTC Launches Trade Investigation

Just before U.S. President Donald Trump announced the indefinite extension of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, it was confirmed that there had been large-scale bets on crude oil futures anticipating a 'decline in oil prices.' Despite monitoring efforts by the White House and regulatory authorities, massive amounts of capital poured in, once again raising suspicions of insider trading using non-public information.

Reuters Yonhap News

According to U.S. energy media outlet Oilprice.com and other foreign news sources on April 22 (local time), several unidentified traders placed 4,260 sell orders for Brent crude oil futures about 15 minutes before President Trump announced the ceasefire extension. The total value of these transactions was approximately 430 million dollars (about 640 billion won). In other words, they made a massive investment in anticipation of falling oil prices.

Immediately after the ceasefire extension announcement, international oil prices plummeted. The price of Brent crude oil dropped sharply from 100.91 dollars per barrel to 96.83 dollars within just a few minutes after the announcement. Foreign media outlets pointed out that these trades occurred during the 'post-settlement' period, a time when trading volumes are usually extremely low, and described it as a "highly suspicious bearish bet."

Michael Selig, Chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is attending and responding at the U.S. Senate confirmation hearing as a nominee in November last year. Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

Since the end of February, when the war began, suspicions of insider trading within the Trump Administration have persisted. On the morning of March 23, President Trump announced via Truth Social that he would delay a strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure. However, less than two minutes and about 15 minutes before the announcement, crude oil futures contracts worth 760 million dollars were traded. On April 7, just hours before the U.S. and Iran announced a ceasefire, a massive short position worth 950 million dollars was established in crude oil futures. On April 17, about 20 minutes before Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, there was another large bearish bet totaling about 760 million dollars.

The Trump Administration appears to have launched internal controls, seemingly aware of mounting negative public opinion. On March 24, the White House reportedly sent an email to all staff warning them not to use their positions inappropriately for trading purposes, according to outlets such as the New York Times (NYT). An outright ban was also issued on “war bets” via prediction markets like Polymarket. Previously, it was reported that three Polymarket accounts made more than 600,000 dollars (about 900 million won) in profits by precisely predicting the timing of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire.

Bloomberg reported on April 15 that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is currently investigating crude oil futures trades executed at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and ICE Futures Exchange. Sources say the CFTC is looking into at least two separate cases. The results of the CFTC investigation are expected to be released around the 30-day response deadline requested by Democratic Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse, who on April 9 called for an investigation over concerns about the possible misuse of critical non-public government information.

However, controversy over the use of non-public information is not limited to the Republican Party or the Trump Administration. According to CNN, prediction market platform Kalshi announced on the same day that its internal investigation confirmed some political candidates had bet directly on their own elections, and it suspended three users on charges of “political insider trading.” Those sanctioned included a Democratic state senator running for the U.S. House of Representatives in Minnesota, an independent candidate in the Virginia state senate election, and a Republican candidate who lost the Texas House primary. Earlier, in February, it was revealed that an employee of YouTuber MrBeast and a California gubernatorial candidate had each bet 200 dollars on their own elections, leading to sanctions.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.