Chilling Timing "Did They Know Again?"... $640 Million Suspicious Bet Just 15 Minutes Before Announcement

It has been confirmed that just before U.S. President Donald Trump announced an indefinite extension of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, there was a massive bet placed on crude oil futures anticipating a drop in oil prices. Despite crackdowns from the White House and regulatory authorities, the influx of substantial funds has reignited suspicions of insider trading using undisclosed information.

Reuters Yonhap News Agency

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According to foreign media outlets such as OilPrice.com on April 22 (local time), some unidentified traders placed 4,260 sell orders for Brent crude oil futures approximately 15 minutes before President Trump’s ceasefire extension announcement. This amounted to about 430 million dollars (approximately 640 billion won). In other words, they invested a massive sum betting that oil prices would fall.

Following the ceasefire extension announcement, international oil prices plummeted. The price of Brent crude dropped sharply from 100.91 dollars per barrel to 96.83 dollars within just a few minutes after the announcement. Foreign media noted that this trade was "executed during the 'post-settlement' period, when trading volumes are typically extremely low," and described it as "a highly suspicious bearish bet."

Michael S. Selig, Chairman of the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is responding during his Senate confirmation hearing as a nominee last November. Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

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Since the war began at the end of February, suspicions of insider trading within the Trump Administration have persisted. On the morning of the 23rd last month, President Trump announced via Truth Social that he would delay airstrikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure. However, less than two minutes and about 15 minutes before that announcement, crude oil futures contracts worth 760 million dollars were traded. On the 7th of this month, a massive short position worth 950 million dollars was established in crude oil futures just hours before the U.S. and Iran announced a ceasefire. On the 17th, about 760 million dollars in large bearish trades occurred only 20 minutes before Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Trump Administration, seemingly conscious of negative public opinion, has begun internal enforcement measures. According to reports from The New York Times (NYT), the White House sent an email to all employees on the 24th of last month, warning them not to misuse their positions for trading purposes. They also issued a ban on “war betting” through prediction markets such as Polymarket. Previously, three Polymarket accounts reportedly earned over 600,000 dollars (about 900 million won) by accurately predicting the timing of the ceasefire with Iran.

Bloomberg News reported on the 15th that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is also currently investigating crude oil futures trades conducted on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and ICE Futures Exchange. Sources say the CFTC is looking into at least two separate cases. The results of the CFTC’s investigation are expected around the 30-day response deadline requested by Democratic Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse. On the 9th, these senators raised concerns about the potential misuse of important undisclosed government information and urged a related investigation.

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However, the controversy over the use of undisclosed information is not limited to the Republican Party or the Trump Administration. According to CNN, the prediction market platform Kalshi announced that its internal investigation had confirmed political candidates were betting directly on their own elections, and as a result, three users were banned for “political insider trading.” The sanctioned individuals include a Democratic state senator running for the U.S. House of Representatives in Minnesota, an independent candidate in the Virginia state senate race, and a Republican candidate who lost in the Texas House primary. Back in February, it was also revealed that an employee of YouTuber MrBeast and a candidate for California governor had each bet 200 dollars on their own elections, leading to sanctions.

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