Constitutional Amendment Scenario Faces Higher Hurdles... "Magic Number" for Passage Rises to 13 People Power Party Lawmakers

Eight Democratic Party Lawmakers Resign to Run in Local Elections
Only One People Power Party Member, Kim Yongtae, Publicly Supports the Amendment; Shortfall in Required Defections
Speaker's Office: "Hoping for a Shift in People Power Party's St

Both the June 3 local elections and constitutional amendment are being pursued simultaneously, but the threshold for passing the amendment is becoming increasingly difficult to cross. This is because a large number of Democratic Party lawmakers who support the amendment have been nominated as candidates for key local government positions, changing the overall vote calculation.

According to the political community on April 16, seven Democratic Party lawmakers—Park Chan-dae (Incheon mayor), Choo Mi-ae (Gyeonggi governor), Jeon Jae-soo (Busan mayor), Kim Sang-wook (Ulsan mayor), Lee Won-taek (North Jeolla governor), Min Hyung-bae (South Jeolla-Gwangju Special Integrated Mayor), and Park Soo-hyun (South Chungcheong governor)—have been confirmed as candidates (listed in order of nomination). In the upcoming runoff for the Democratic Party's Jeju governor candidate, which will be finalized on April 18, two lawmakers, Wi Seong-gon and Moon Dae-rim, are competing, meaning that the resignation of one incumbent lawmaker is inevitable. As a result, the number of Democratic Party lawmakers necessary for the constitutional amendment has decreased.

Compared to the Democratic Party, the ruling People Power Party has seen fewer incumbent lawmakers running in the local elections; depending on the outcome of the Daegu mayoral race, it is estimated that about zero to two incumbent lawmakers could run.

According to the current Public Official Election Act, incumbent lawmakers running in the local elections must resign by May 4. Therefore, for the National Assembly plenary session vote on the constitutional amendment, expected to take place on May 7, the number of participating lawmakers will decrease by about eight to ten. As a result, the required quorum for the amendment will change from the current 197 members (out of 295 total lawmakers) to 189–191 members (out of 283–285 total lawmakers).

Although it is known that at least 10 lawmakers from the People Power Party are needed to pass the amendment, this number is expected to increase further. As of now, those who have expressed support for the amendment include approximately 160 Democratic Party members, 12 from the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, 4 from the Progressive Party, 3 from the Reform New Party, 1 from the Basic Income Party, 1 from the Social Democratic Party, and 6 independents, totaling 187. The number of lawmakers who have actually joined the initiative for the amendment is the same. However, when accounting for the eight Democratic Party lawmakers who are expected to resign and Independent lawmaker Kang Sun-woo, who is unable to vote due to being in custody, the actual number of lawmakers able to vote drops to 178.

The situation may change depending on developments after the Daegu mayoral primary, but at least 13 People Power Party lawmakers would need to support the amendment for it to clear the National Assembly. However, thus far, Kim Yong-tae is effectively the only People Power Party lawmaker to have publicly expressed support for the amendment.

An official from the office of the National Assembly Speaker, who is leading the amendment effort, said, "At this point, rather than trying to persuade individual People Power Party lawmakers, we believe a broader shift in the party's stance is necessary," adding, "With the local elections fast approaching, we are hoping for a change in the overall mood."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.