[IPO Microscope] Cosmo Robotics Sees Revenue Decline in Q4

Business and Financial Risks Revealed in Revised Filing

Top Two Clients Account for Two-Thirds of Revenue Concentration

"60 Billion Won in Accounts Receivable from European Subsidiary"

Cosmo Robotics, a wearable rehabilitation robot company pursuing a KOSDAQ listing, recently submitted a revised securities registration statement. The revision goes beyond mere numerical adjustments, providing specific details that investors should pay attention to, such as the company's revenue structure, the underlying assumptions for future earnings estimates, key financial indicators, and accounts receivable status. Some analysts point out that the revised filing also exposes a gap between the company's previously presented growth scenario and its recent performance trends.

30% Revenue Decline in Q4... Feasibility of 3.5x Growth by 2027

According to the Financial Supervisory Service's electronic disclosure system on March 18, Cosmo Robotics projects revenue of 8.9 billion won in 2025, 12.9 billion won in 2026, and 30.9 billion won in 2027. The company expects to turn profitable in 2027, forecasting an operating profit of 6.1 billion won. The offering price was also calculated based on these future earnings estimates. For this plan to materialize, revenue would need to grow at a very steep pace.

However, the newly added preliminary numbers in the revised filing paint a different picture. Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 (October to December) was 1.747 billion won, a 30% year-over-year decline from 2.482 billion won in the same period of the previous year. Operating loss and net loss also persisted. Total revenue for January and February of 2026 was only 662 million won. To achieve the annual target of 12.9 billion won, the company must generate 12.2 billion won in revenue over the remaining 10 months. This translates to a monthly average of about 1.2 billion won, which is roughly four times the current monthly sales pace.

The key assumptions for turning a profit were also specified for the first time in this amendment. Cosmo Robotics stated, "The following key assumptions must be met to achieve the projected profit and loss," listing: (1) expansion into the U.S. home-use market, (2) maintenance of average selling prices, and (3) entry into the industrial robot (COSaver) market. The company acknowledged that if even one of these assumptions falters, it will be difficult to achieve the projections. This information was not present in the initial filing and was added during the revision process.

Reliance on Two Products and Few Clients... Revenue Structure Is Concentrated

Cosmo Robotics's revenue structure is highly concentrated, both in terms of products and clients. As of the third quarter of 2025, the combined share of its top five clients accounted for 85.94% of total revenue, meaning nearly all sales come from a handful of customers. Notably, the largest client, Company A, accounted for 36.84%, and the second-largest, Company B, for 27.57%, making up approximately 64% of total revenue with just two clients.

This concentration has intensified in recent years. The combined share of the top five clients increased from 43.10% in 2022 to 58.78% in 2023, 59.63% in 2024, and soared to 85.94% by the third quarter of 2025. There is a clear gap between Cosmo Robotics's claim that "reliance on specific clients has not been high over the past three business years" and the actual numbers. Product-wise, concentration is also high. The majority of Cosmo Robotics's revenue comes from two products: the adult rehabilitation robot "ExoAtlet (EA2)" and the pediatric product "BambiniTeens (BAM-T)." Combined, these two products account for over 90% of total revenue. While the company is developing additional product lines, they are still in the early stages of market entry.

The risks associated with this concentration structure were belatedly addressed in the revised filing. The company disclosed that changes in medical device regulations or certification delays in major export markets, as well as intensified price competition from rival product launches, could heighten the volatility of results due to heavy reliance on specific markets and clients. Cosmo Robotics stated, "We plan to diversify our client base by acquiring new customers in the manufacturing and logistics sectors both domestically and internationally," and added, "If our product portfolio expansion is successful in the future, dependency on specific product groups and clients will be distributed."

Negative Interest Coverage Ratio and Increase in Accounts Receivable

The revised securities registration statement also included a number of financial stability indicators. Notably, the interest coverage ratio, which was not disclosed in the previous filing, was presented for the first time. The interest coverage ratio measures the extent to which operating profit can cover interest expenses. Generally, a ratio below 1 means operating profit alone is insufficient to cover financial costs. As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, Cosmo Robotics's interest coverage ratio stood at -8.18, a significant gap compared to the industry average of approximately 1.38.

Specific figures were also added to the accounts receivable metric, which had previously only been described as "below the industry average." The accounts receivable balance jumped from 220 million won at the end of 2022 to 5.98 billion won at the end of the third quarter of 2025, an increase of about 27 times. During the same period, the ratio of accounts receivable to assets rose from 2.9% to 25.3%. The accounts receivable turnover ratio dropped sharply from 38.84 times in 2022 to 2.75 times in the third quarter of 2025. This means that the amount of money outstanding after selling products has increased, and the speed at which sales proceeds are collected in cash has slowed considerably. Cosmo Robotics explained, "There has never been a failure to collect accounts receivable in the past, and since these receivables are from our European subsidiary, we believe the risk of non-collection is low."

Meanwhile, Cosmo Robotics set its desired IPO price band at 5,300 to 6,000 won per share. The total number of shares to be offered is 4.17 million, with the expected total offering amount ranging from approximately 22.1 billion to 25 billion won. Book building for institutional investors will take place from March 30 to April 3, followed by subscriptions on April 9 and 10.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.