"Sea Level Rise from Global Warming Has Much Greater Impact Than Predicted"

Dutch Research Team Analyzes 385 Previous Studies
"Sea Level Baselines Underestimated, Impacts Also Minimized"
"Proper Reflection Could Affect Up to 132 Million People"

There are concerns that most studies predicting sea level rise due to global warming have underestimated the actual baseline for sea levels.

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On March 5, Yonhap News reported, "The research team led by Professor Philip Minderhoud at Wageningen University in the Netherlands analyzed 385 papers on coastal exposure and disaster impact assessments published between 2009 and 2025, and calculated the differences between assumed and actual measured coastal sea levels, according to their findings published in the scientific journal Nature."

The team analyzed 385 peer-reviewed papers on coastal exposure and disaster impact assessments published between 2009 and 2025, and conducted a global meta-analysis to calculate the difference between commonly assumed coastal sea levels and actual measured sea levels worldwide.

As a result, they found that more than 90% of previous sea level impact studies analyzed sea level rise using the geoid model, which estimates global average sea levels based on Earth's gravity and rotation, instead of using actual measured sea levels. According to the geoid model, the sea level height is reflected as 0.24 to 0.27 meters lower than actual measurements, and in some regions, the discrepancy reached as much as 5.5 to 7.6 meters.

According to the research team, the geoid model only considers gravity and Earth's rotation, and fails to take into account other factors that determine local sea levels, such as tides, ocean currents, and wind. The team pointed out, "Evaluations of sea level rise and coastal disaster impacts based on the geoid model are calculated using a lower sea level baseline than the actual measurement, and as a result, the associated risks have been underestimated."

Tuvalu, an island in the South Pacific facing the risk of submersion due to rising sea levels caused by global warming. Official tourism website of Tuvalu

With global warming accelerating rapidly, sea level rise is becoming a significant threat to coastal regions worldwide. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has previously estimated that the global average sea level could rise by 0.28 to 1 meter by the year 2100. However, the research team noted, "If sea level height is properly reflected, a 1-meter rise in sea level could submerge 37% more land than previously predicted, potentially affecting up to 132 million people."

Professor Minderhoud, who led the study, stated, "If the actual sea level for a specific island or coastal city is higher than previously assumed, the impacts of sea level rise may appear sooner than expected," adding, "Regional governments and others need to examine whether this issue affects their respective areas."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.