"South Korea Faces Threat Comparable to Medieval European Black Death"... Warning from The New York Times

New York Times, Column "Is Korea Disappearing?"

Foreign media reported that South Korea's domestic population could decline at a faster rate than during the Black Death due to the country's decreasing birth rate.

Ross Douthat, a columnist for the New York Times (NYT), introduced South Korea's total fertility rate, which has dropped to 0.7, in a column titled "Is South Korea Disappearing?" on the 2nd (local time). He analyzed that South Korea's population could decline faster than in 14th-century medieval Europe, when the Black Death caused a sharp population decrease.

Douthat cited South Korea as "a prominent case study country in the population decline issues faced by developed countries" and explained the significance of the total fertility rate of 0.7 by referring to "medieval Europe." He said, "A country maintaining this level of fertility will see a generation of 200 people shrink to 70 in the next generation," adding, "This kind of population decline surpasses the population decrease caused by the Black Death in 14th-century Europe."

He further stated, "If an additional generation replacement experiment is conducted, the original population of 200 will fall below 25, and with one more generation replacement, it reaches the level of rapid population collapse caused by the fictional superflu in Stephen King's novel 'The Stand.'"

However, he did not expect South Korea's extremely low birth rate to remain unchanged for the next several decades.

Nonetheless, he viewed it as a clear crisis. Introducing Statistics Korea's population projection that South Korea's population could fall below 35 million by 2067, he said that this projection alone could plunge Korean society into crisis. He predicted, "There will be inevitable neglect of the elderly generation, vast ghost towns and desolate high-rise buildings, and young generations with no future burdened by elder care will emigrate abroad."

He also analyzed, "If South Korea struggles to maintain a competent field army, there is a possibility that North Korea, with a total fertility rate of 1.8, might invade at some point."

He cited brutal entrance exam competition culture and conflicts between feminists and anti-feminists as causes of South Korea's low birth rate.

He viewed this not as a problem unique to South Korea. "This phenomenon is not so much contrasted with American culture as it is an exaggerated version of what the United States is also experiencing," and said, "The current situation in South Korea is not simply a bleak and astonishing phenomenon but a warning of what could happen in the United States as well."

South Korea's Birth Rate Has Long Been a Foreign Media Interest

This is not the first time foreign media have taken interest in South Korea's unprecedentedly low birth rate. The Washington Post mentioned Jeju Island, a representative tourist destination in South Korea, in May, pointing out the culture of "No Kids Zones" despite the world's lowest birth rate, saying, "There are as many as 500 No Kids Zones on this island alone."

In September, the NYT pointed out that South Korea, once called a "baby export country" and known for "mail-order babies," still continues this legacy as the country with the world's lowest birth rate remains a major baby export nation.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.