"Continuous Provocations by North Korea with 'Complete Devastation' of Enemy Lines... What Is Their Aim?"

Completion of ICBM System Under Pretext of ROK-US Joint Exercises
'Worsening Food Shortage'... Internal Control Amid War Atmosphere
"Threat Expands Beyond Korean Peninsula to Indo-Pacific Region"

[Asia Economy Reporter Jang Hee-jun] Experts analyze that North Korea's resumption of provocations by consecutively launching missiles is driven by political and technical purposes. It is seen as an intention to build justification for provocations under the pretext of the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises while completing its weapons system through continuous missile launches. Some also view that, as the food shortage worsens to the extent that starvation deaths are occurring, there may be an aspect aimed at internal control.

According to diplomatic and security authorities on the 20th, North Korea began full-scale provocations starting from the 17th. At that time, North Korea's Foreign Ministry spokesperson issued a statement condemning both the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises collectively, and on the following day, the 18th, launched the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) 'Hwasong-15.' Additionally, on the morning of the same day, it fired two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), claimed to be 'super-large multiple rocket launchers,' into the East Sea.

Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea

North Korea, which had been focusing on internal political schedules earlier this year, can be inferred to have resumed provocations based on the 'harsh remarks' statements from Kim Yo-jong, the deputy director of the Workers' Party, issued consecutively from the previous day. Targeting the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises, she mentioned 'ultra-strong responses,' and unusually, in the statement released through the Korean Central News Agency that morning, she focused on refuting the South's missile assessments point by point.

Kim Yo-jong criticized, "I observed all day yesterday, and the speculations, groundless assumptions, and various evaluations are truly a spectacle," adding, "They desperately tried to downgrade the evaluation of our missile forces' readiness." She angrily responded to the criticism that it is difficult to see the launch as a 'surprise attack' since it took more than nine hours from the order issuance to the launch, saying that they deliberately chose the afternoon time slot.

"North Korea's ICBM Incomplete"... Likely to Complete Weapons System Through Provocations

Kim Yo-jong, Deputy Director of the Workers' Party

However, experts view North Korea's weapons system as still close to 'incomplete.' Shin Jong-woo, Secretary General of the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said in a phone interview with Asia Economy on the same day, "The Hwasong-15, which has been launched only three times, is difficult to consider as having secured practical effectiveness as a weapons system." He added, "It is questionable whether atmospheric reentry technology will work when launched at a normal angle," and analyzed, "Kim Yo-jong's claim in the statement that the South assigned four rocket artillery shells per airbase is just an assertion and propaganda opposing the deployment of strategic assets."

Ultimately, North Korea's intention appears to be to continuously launch missiles under the pretext of the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises to complete the ICBM weapons system. Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University, pointed out, "Looking at Kim Yo-jong's statement, she explained technical issues of the Hwasong-15 in detail, but it is just an unsubstantiated explanation without concrete evidence and cannot guarantee reliability," adding, "The detailed rebuttal rather indicates the limitations of their technological capabilities." He further diagnosed it as "a plan to develop ICBM technology while creating tension under the pretext of responding to South Korea and the U.S."

However, the fact that North Korea unusually issued a public rebuttal to the South Korean experts' evaluation pointing out the 'launch delay' is also seen as an intention to showcase the nuclear weapons operation system. Hong Min, head of the North Korea Research Division at the Korea Institute for National Unification, evaluated, "Kim Yo-jong's active explanation directly emphasizes that the nuclear weapons command and execution system and operability have been regularized," adding, "Through this, it seems to carry the meaning of reminding once again that they possess deterrence against the U.S."

"Starvation Deaths Increasing"... Internal Control Sought as Food Shortage Worsens

In September 2012, North Korean farmers in Kaesong are sorting harvested corn in the field. [Image source=Getty Images]

Some analyses suggest that North Korea is escalating military tensions to control internal situations. In fact, it is known that the food shortage in North Korea has become so severe that people are dying of starvation in large numbers. In such a situation where public unrest is feared, creating an atmosphere of fear and strengthening internal unity is a behavior North Korea typically engages in.

As the basis for this analysis, Professor Park Won-gon pointed out the 'changed justification.' South Korea and the U.S. began to strengthen their joint exercise readiness in earnest from the second half of last year. At that time, North Korea criticized the joint exercises but put forward the justification of 'self-defensive actions according to the five-year national defense development plan.' However, this year, through a series of statements, North Korea has been focusing hostility on South Korea and the U.S.

Professor Park remarked, "The situation remains the same, but the justification has changed, which indicates that internal circumstances are not easy." He suggested that North Korea judged it necessary to create tension under the justification that 'the authorities are responding to hostile acts by the opponent' to control internal situations as well as for the previous purposes.

North Korea has already admitted that its internal food situation is severe. Following the end of last year, it announced the reconvening of a party plenary meeting with 'agriculture issues' as the sole agenda in late this month, only two months later. According to sources close to North Korea, it is reported that North Korea recently reduced the grain ration for soldiers for the first time since the 2000s, and starvation deaths are occurring in various regions including Hamgyong Province. Ko Byung-sam, spokesperson for the Ministry of Unification, also acknowledged this observation during a regular briefing at the Seoul Government Complex on the same day, stating, "As a result of closely sharing evaluations of North Korea's food situation among related agencies, it is reported that food shortages are severe, with starvation deaths occurring in some areas."

Threat Extends to Indo-Pacific... 'Medium-Range Missiles' Expected to Be Main Focus

North Korea Unveils Larger New ICBM on 75th Anniversary of Party Founding

Therefore, North Korea is expected to engage in 'relay provocations' in the future. Military schedules are planned, including the start of the extended deterrence operational exercise (DSC TTX) on the 22nd (U.S. local time), which assumes a North Korean nuclear attack scenario, and the large-scale South Korea-U.S. joint exercises scheduled for mid-next month, which North Korea uses as justification for provocations.

In particular, considering that Kim Yo-jong threatened on the same day, "The frequency of using the Pacific as our shooting range depends on the nature of U.S. military actions," there is an analysis that the scope of strategic provocations will expand from the Korean Peninsula to the Indo-Pacific region. There is a possibility that North Korea will focus on launching medium- to long-range ballistic missiles rather than short-range ones.

Hong Min, head of the North Korea Research Division at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said, "The 'weapons aimed at the Pacific' mentioned in Kim Yo-jong's statement refer to medium-range or longer missiles," adding, "Although the nature of U.S. military actions was conditioned, it practically signals the intention to launch multiple medium-range or longer missiles." He further added, "The mention of the response situation as 'the relationship affecting national security' and 'when certain concerns are judged' is a warning regarding the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises."

Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies, commented on North Korea's moves, saying, "Since the party plenary meeting at the end of this month has set agriculture as the sole agenda, they will likely pursue a two-track approach separating 'domestic affairs' and 'military responses,'" and predicted, "Starting with this ballistic missile launch, they may escalate the level with solid-fuel ICBM combustion tests, liquid-fuel ICBM normal-angle launches, rocket launches for reconnaissance satellites, and drone provocations."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.