Record Final Voter Turnout in 25 Years?... Attention on 'All-Time High' Early Voting Rate

On the morning of the 5th, the second day of early voting for the 20th presidential election, a citizen leaving the voting booth holding a ballot paper at the early voting station set up in the waiting room of Seoul Station.
[Photo by Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hwang Sumi] The early voting rate for the 20th presidential election has reached an all-time high, drawing attention to whether the enthusiasm will continue through to the main election day.

According to the National Election Commission on the 6th, the early voting rate for the election held on the 4th and 5th was recorded at 36.93%. This is the highest early voting rate since early voting was first applied to nationwide elections in 2014.

This is 10.24 percentage points higher than the previous highest early voting rate of 26.69% recorded in the 21st National Assembly election in 2020. In particular, it is 10.87 percentage points higher compared to the 26.06% early voting rate in the 19th presidential election in 2017.

As a result, there is keen interest in whether the final voter turnout will also set a record high. Additionally, attention is focused on whether the turnout will reach 80% for the first time in 25 years.

Looking at the voter turnout in past presidential elections since the implementation of direct elections, the 13th presidential election in 1987 recorded a high turnout of 89.2%, followed by 81.8% and 80.7% in the 14th and 15th presidential elections in 1992 and 1997, respectively.

However, in the four presidential elections held over the following 25 years, the turnout did not exceed 80%. The turnout for the 16th presidential election in 2002 remained at 70.8%, and the 17th presidential election in 2007 recorded the lowest turnout ever at 63%. The 18th and 19th presidential elections saw turnouts of 75.8% and 77.2%, respectively.

Experts analyzed that one reason for the high early voting rate in this election is the COVID-19 situation. Voters chose early voting, where fewer people gather, over the main election day.

There is also an analysis that the extremely close race between the two major parties in the final stages of the election drove voters to the polls. Bae Cheol-ho, Senior Specialist at the polling agency Realmeter, stated, "Competitive elections always increase voter turnout," adding, "While it is difficult to definitively say whether this is advantageous or disadvantageous, it appears that participation among politically engaged and loyal voters has increased."

However, experts evaluated that a high early voting rate does not necessarily lead to an increase in overall voter turnout. There is a possibility that while early voting saw maximum consolidation of support bases, the main election day could record a lower turnout.

Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University said, "In the case of the 19th presidential election, the early voting rate was 26.06%, but the final turnout was 77.2%. The 21st general election had a higher early voting rate of 26.69% than the presidential election, but the final turnout was only 66.2%."

He added, "This presidential election has a high early voting rate of 36.93%, so the turnout will likely exceed 75%," offering a somewhat conservative forecast.

Professor Eom Ki-hong of Kyungpook National University also said, "In this election, the consolidation of support bases is so intense that the high early voting participation rate does not necessarily mean a high turnout on the main election day. It could actually be lower than in the 19th presidential election."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.