An Missing Presidential Election... Is the Fierce Battle for 3rd Place Just Beginning?

Ahn Cheol-soo's Sudden Resignation... Focus on Opposition Unification Impact
Poll Assuming 'Three-Way Race' Among Lee, Yoon, and Shim Shows Shim Sang-jung's Support Rising
Shim Sang-jung: "I Want to Surpass 10% Support... Aim to Change Politics to a Multi-Party System"
Heo Kyung-young Claims "I, Lee, and Yoon Will Compete in a Three-Way Race Due to Opposition Unification"
Experts: "Shim Sang-jung Is Significantly Underrated... Political Risk Will Be High If Support Declines"

Sim Sang-jung, the Justice Party's presidential candidate, holds a special press conference at the National Assembly on the 3rd./Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Hyun-joo] With the dramatic unification of the opposition, changes have occurred in the political landscape. As former People's Party presidential candidate Ahn Cheol-soo, who was solidly in third place, abruptly withdrew due to the unification, evaluations suggest that a fierce battle for third place has begun. The candidates considered for third place, following the two leading candidates in a neck-and-neck race, are Sim Sang-jung of the Justice Party and Heo Kyung-young of the People's Revolutionary Party.

Sim Sang-jung, running for president for the fourth time, performed well in the 19th presidential election by securing 6.2% of the vote. However, she is currently evaluated as struggling to gain support in this election.

According to a survey conducted by OBS through the polling firm Media Research from the 28th of last month to the 1st of this month, asking 1,000 adult men and women, "Who would you vote for in this presidential election?" Sim received 1.5% support. This figure is tied with Heo Kyung-young of the People's Revolutionary Party. Analysts suggest that if Sim, the "face of the progressive camp" and a candidate from the third-largest party in the National Assembly, falls behind Heo in support, it would pose a significant political risk.

Heo attracted attention with his radical pledge to pay 10 million won in "COVID-19 emergency livelihood support" to all citizens aged 18 and over within two months of taking office if elected. He claimed to have around 5% support and expressed frustration at being invited to a minor party candidate debate.

Some expect Sim's support to rebound further. Throughout the presidential race, Sim has highlighted her "weak candidate" stance, clearly emphasizing her progressive identity. Recently, she also made a strong impression with her excellent debate skills during the presidential candidate TV debates.

Sim also expressed her ambition to surpass 10% support. In her closing remarks at the third debate hosted by the National Election Commission on the 2nd, she said, "My support is about 3%, half of what it was in the last presidential election. Honestly, I want to triple that and exceed 10% because I can reduce the risks of sexual violence and gender discrimination by three times." She added, "Above all, I want to transform the entrenched two-party politics into a multi-party system that protects citizens' lives."

Huh Kyung-young, the presidential candidate of the National Revolutionary Party, is attending the kickoff rally held in front of the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul, on the first day of the official campaign for the 20th presidential election last month, the 15th. [Image source=Yonhap News]

The political sphere is paying attention to the impact of the opposition unification, which occurred amid a neck-and-neck race between Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party and Yoon Seok-youl of the People Power Party. In polls assuming a three-way race without Ahn, support for Sim also increased alongside the two leading candidates.

A Gallup Korea survey commissioned by Money Today, conducted from the 1st to 2nd among 1,005 adults nationwide, asked, "If Lee, Yoon, and Sim run, who do you think would be the best president?" Yoon led with 42.5%, narrowly ahead of Lee at 42.2%. In this survey, Sim recorded 7.3%, showing an increase compared to other polls.

In a two-way race poll conducted by Embrain Public for JoongAng Ilbo from the 28th of last month to the 2nd, surveying 2,013 adults aged 18 and over nationwide, 8.5% of Ahn's supporters said they would support Sim. In this poll assuming opposition unification, 31.2% of Ahn's supporters said they would shift to Lee, and 29.2% to Yoon. Detailed information on the cited polls can be found on the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.

In this context, Sim declared her intention to complete the presidential race as a "three-way race." At a press conference on the 3rd, following the sudden unification of the opposition, she expressed regret, saying, "As someone who hoped to achieve political change beyond the two major parties by competing and cooperating with Ahn in this election, I am very disappointed and regretful. The public's disappointment in recalling Ahn as an alternative in the third zone will also be great."

Sim continued, "There is no wasted vote. A vote for Sim Sang-jung will be a vivid 'live vote' for regime change and better lives for citizens. Please become the protagonist of great political change. End the 35-year two-party system and open a new dawn of political change with a vigorous multi-party coalition," repeatedly appealing for support.

Heo also released a statement on the same day, saying, "The fake is gone, and Heo Kyung-young will now engage in a three-way race with Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party and Yoon Seok-youl. It has become clear to all that voters have been deceived and mocked by terrestrial broadcasters and some establishment manipulations."

Heo added, "When Heo Kyung-young entered the three-way race, Sim once suspended her campaign and went into seclusion, sparking rumors of mid-campaign withdrawal. While it is understandable that the ruling and opposition parties and candidates weigh the pros and cons regarding Heo, it is despicable and deceptive to lock Heo away as an establishment figure and block voters' right to know," he said.

On the afternoon of the 3rd, candidates' banners were hung on the streets of Gwanak-gu, Seoul. [Image source=Yonhap News]

Experts predict that if Sim's support remains low in this election, the "political risk" will be significant. Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon said, "Unexpectedly, Heo could take third place. If Sim fails to secure votes compared to the 19th presidential election, especially if she loses to Heo, the damage will be considerable."

Lee believes Sim is considerably underrated. He said, "She is an excellent candidate, but (having run multiple times) voters seem fatigued. Also, the internal situation within the progressive camp appears complicated. That's why the Justice Party's support is not coming out well," he explained.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.