[Generational Vote Analysis 6070] Conservative Base United but 'Lee's Share' Shift Draws Attention

Voter Share Hits Record 30%... Lee Focuses on Multiple Promises vs Yoon Emphasizes Sustainable Welfare

[Asia Economy Reporter Baek Kyunghwan] In this presidential election, the proportion of voters aged 60 and over soared to a record high of 30%. Unlike the 2030 generation, known as 'swing voters,' this group is classified as a solid conservative base, but some signs of changing sentiment are being detected. The unpopularity of the election, with many feeling there is 'no candidate to vote for,' combined with the spread of the Omicron variant, could affect the elderly's voter turnout. Both ruling and opposition parties consider the 60s and 70s age groups as key variables in this election.

Looking at the trends in presidential election polls conducted by the National Barometer Survey (NBS) since January, the percentage of voters in their 60s and 70s who said they would 'definitely participate' rose from the mid-80% range in early January to the low 90% range on the day before the last poll was conducted (the 3rd). Meanwhile, the proportion of those who said they would 'not vote' dropped significantly from 5% to 1-2% during the same period. This is interpreted as a consolidation of the conservative elderly vote.

During this period, support for Yoon Seok-yeol, the People Power Party candidate, among voters in their 60s and 70s increased from 43% and 57% to 57% and 59%, respectively. This indicates that active voters shifted toward Yoon, with support among those in their 60s rising sharply from 43% in early January to 57%.

However, it is noteworthy that support for Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party candidate who is relatively progressive in this age group, is also increasing. In early January, Lee's support among those in their 60s and 70s was 33% and 21%, respectively, but in the poll conducted just before the publication ban, it rose to 36% and 26%, an 8 percentage point increase combined. Considering that Yoon's support among those in their 70s increased by only 2 percentage points from 57% to 59% during the same period, it suggests that Lee absorbed undecided voters somewhat more effectively.

This is why Lee focused on targeting the elderly aged 60 and above. Under the concept of 'A Happy Korea in Old Age, Listening to the Voices of Seniors,' Lee announced a plan to introduce an annual middle-aged allowance of 1.2 million KRW for seniors in their early 60s. This aims to fill the gap in public pensions between retirement at age 60 and the start of basic pension payments at 65, as well as the national pension received between ages 61 and 65. He also pledged to expand health insurance coverage for dental implants and to abolish the couple reduction rule in the basic pension to secure income for the elderly.

The Yoon camp is equally eager to secure a 'solid support base.' Although the conservative tendency is clear, as evidenced by the overwhelming conservative votes in the last election held after impeachment, voters in their early to mid-60s also share characteristics of the '86 generation,' showing moderate tendencies.

Yoon presented his pledges within the broad framework of 'welfare policies for the elderly.' His approach is a 'two-track' strategy combining growth and welfare by creating jobs through social service welfare rather than direct cash payments, aiming to build a sustainable structure. Yoon emphasized, "This is not about giving out cash handouts but about providing dynamic welfare that focuses intensively and substantially on difficult issues."

At the start of early voting on the 4th, both Lee and Yoon's camps are paying close attention to the early voting rates among the 60s and 70s age groups. Early voting tends to see a large turnout from active supporters, and the mood of early voting is expected to influence the main vote on the 9th, potentially stimulating moderate voters. In the case of voters in their 60s and 70s, early voting rates were only 12.2% and 10.0%, respectively, in the 2014 local elections, but rose to 33.4% and 30.5% in the last general election. For more details, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.