Chairman of the National Defense Committee of the National Assembly: "If Leaflets Are Not Sent, There Will Be No Military Provocation... SLBM Is Possible"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] Min Hong-cheol, a member of the National Defense Committee of the National Assembly from the Democratic Party of Korea, expressed the view that the possibility of direct military provocations by North Korea is low. However, he predicted that if the leaflet distribution to North Korea continues, provocations such as anti-aircraft gun fire could occur, and there is a possibility of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) launch intended to show a signal to the United States.

On the 18th, in a phone interview with Asia Economy, Committee Chairman Min said, "Looking at the statements from the spokesperson of the North Korean General Staff, it appears to be a step toward nullifying the military agreement, and there could be forward deployment of military units and unsealing of coastal artillery," but added, "It is unlikely to escalate to direct provocations such as shootings, infiltrations, or crossing the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea." He analyzed that North Korea would not skip several stages at once and revert to the extreme situation before the June 15 North-South Joint Declaration of 2000.

Committee Chairman Min stated, "Before 2000, there were times of active provocations, but since then, various measures have been taken in the interest of maintaining the armistice agreement," and added, "It is important to understand North Korea's intentions, which seem to be sending a strong signal with the United States in mind. From that perspective, it will not return to the pre-June 15 stage that could lead to a catastrophe with the U.S." Assuming that North Korea's ultimate goal is 'dialogue,' the situation inside North Korea, which has become even more difficult due to the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), must be taken into account.

Regarding this, Committee Chairman Min appeared on KBS Radio on the same day and mentioned a "signal to the United States," saying, "It could be an SLBM launch or a demonstration of such, or similar acts. While it is premature to conclude, there is certainly a possibility in terms of expressing dissatisfaction with North Korea-U.S. relations or urging action toward the U.S."

He also noted that if the leaflet distribution to North Korea, which sparked the current situation, continues, the situation could change. Committee Chairman Min expressed concern, saying, "(A defector group) is preparing one million leaflets for the 70th anniversary of the Korean War, and since this insults what North Korea calls the 'Supreme Dignity,' they could respond with anti-aircraft gun or anti-aircraft rifle fire." He continued, "Managing such a situation is very important. It is desirable not to provoke each other to prevent further deterioration."

The National Assembly is currently at a standstill due to the refusal of the United Future Party, and the National Defense Committee is no exception. Committee Chairman Min said, "What the National Assembly must do now is to prevent the situation from worsening further," and added, "If the United Future Party joins, the National Defense Committee can be convened. At least in terms of security, the ruling and opposition parties should show unity."

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