Is it possible for U.S. President Donald Trump to attempt a third term? From the early days of his second term, President Trump has frequently mentioned the idea of running for a third term, sparking controversy. Experts analyze that President Trump’s repeated statements?despite their unconstitutionality?and the sale of related merchandise are part of a sophisticated political strategy. Some interpret his recent step back from the third-term bid as a calculated move to gauge public reaction and test the boundaries between legality and illegality.

A Move to Avoid Criminal Punishment

"Because he knows that if he steps down from the presidency,
he could go to prison"

Judgment of Intended Political Staging

"Building an image opposing an absurd system and progressives
Actual possibility of attempting a third term is low"

Provocation Against the Opposing Camp

"A tool to provoke the anti-Trump forces
who feel threatened by his bid for a third term"

In a phone interview with NBC in March, President Trump was asked about plans to run for a third term. He replied, "There are ways to do it," and "I'm not joking. Many people want me to do it." He also mentioned that one scenario would be for Vice President JD Vance to run and then hand over the role to him, calling it "one way" it could happen.

In addition, the Trump Group, the family business of President Trump, has fueled the controversy by selling hats bearing the phrase "Trump 2028" since last month. The year 2028 is when the next U.S. presidential election will be held. Notably, the phrase "Rewrite the rules" printed on T-shirts sold alongside the hats has been interpreted as a direct challenge to the 22nd Amendment, which limits a president to two terms.

T-shirts with "Trump 2028" written on them. Photo by AFP Yonhap News

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There is a growing assessment that President Trump’s public discussion of a third-term bid is a political strategy that goes beyond a simple joke. Russian-American journalist Masha Gessen pointed out, "President Trump's third-term plan is a serious and grave matter for him. The most important reason he keeps bringing it up is because he knows that if he steps down from the presidency, he could go to prison." In other words, President Trump is laying the groundwork early to avoid facing criminal prosecution as a private citizen after his term ends.

Gessen also noted that President Trump is attacking the media to create an election environment more favorable for a third-term victory. She said, "It’s frightening to imagine how much more extreme President Trump’s attacks on the media could become over the next four years. It is questionable whether the election four years from now will reflect the will of the people as past American elections have." She added, "President Trump and the Republican Party continue to undermine the American election system."

In fact, in March, President Trump signed an executive order stipulating that only those who can prove U.S. citizenship may vote in federal elections. This executive order specifies that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), in cooperation with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), can issue subpoenas to review voter rolls in each state, and that federal funding may be cut to states that do not comply. Political media outlet Axios warned that such measures could end up disenfranchising far more legitimate voters than they would catch or deter illegal voters.

On the 29th of last month (local time), at a rally held to mark the 100th day of President Donald Trump's inauguration, supporters held banners reading "Trump 2028." Photo by AFP/Getty Images

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Bret Stephens, a conservative columnist for The New York Times (NYT), judged that President Trump’s references to a third term are more of an intentional political performance than a genuine plan for implementation. He said, "President Trump does not appear to be worried about going to prison after his term ends," and analyzed that the actual possibility of him attempting a third term is low. He explained, "President Trump is well aware that he is being portrayed as someone who stands against an (absurd) system or progressive forces," and that he is using third-term remarks to craft a political image.

Stephens predicted that, as some fear, even if President Trump attempts a third term by any means, the resistance of the American democratic system will function. He emphasized, "With high probability, President Trump will not be president four years from now. The United States today is neither Russia under Boris Yeltsin after the collapse of the Soviet Union, nor the Weimar Republic. American institutions are much stronger than the general public thinks, and they are increasingly regaining their voice."

Meanwhile, Washington Post (WP) columnist David Von Drehle approached President Trump’s third-term remarks as a political provocation against the opposing camp. He said, "The legal question of whether President Trump can run in the 2028 election is already settled. It is no longer a matter of legal interpretation," and interpreted items like the "Trump 2028" hat as tools to provoke anti-Trump forces who feel threatened by his third-term bid.

Von Drehle observed a sense of urgency in President Trump’s repeated references to a third-term bid. He said, "What President Trump does not want the public to be reminded of is that there is not much time left for him to be on the 'stage' as president. By the end of his term, he will be even older than former President Joe Biden, and voters do not look favorably on an aging president." He continued, "With a fierce budget battle expected in Congress soon, if it becomes clear that the Republican Party has failed to resolve the national debt issue, President Trump’s grip on Congress will become even more precarious. After that, the midterm elections await. President Trump may wish he could stop time at this moment, but time waits for no one."

Eric Trump, the second son of U.S. President Donald Trump, is wearing a 'Trump 2028' hat. Photo by Eric Trump

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President Trump, who had previously made no secret of his 'third-term ambition,' reversed his stance in an NBC interview released on the 4th, stating that he has no intention of running in the 2028 presidential election. He said, "As far as I know, a third-term bid is not allowed," and drew a line by saying, "It’s not something I want to do." He added, "I want to spend the next four years doing a great job and then hand over the position to another Republican. I will have served as president for eight years, completing two terms. I have always thought that this is very important." However, regarding his successor, he said, "It’s too early to say," and avoided giving a specific answer.

There is analysis that this change in President Trump’s position does not necessarily mean he is abandoning a third-term bid. The NYT pointed out, "President Trump has a history of bringing his actual intentions into public discussion through outlandish remarks. He always tests the boundaries of the law. Even when he retracts provocative claims (such as a third-term bid), he wants the public to reconsider the possibility and become accustomed to it."