US to Impose Maritime Blockade on Iran from 10 a.m. on the 13th... Will Oil Prices Surge Again?

Aimed at eliminating Iran's negotiating leverage
Oil exports expected to drop by 1.5 to 1.7 million barrels per day
U.S. determined to pressure Iran despite concerns over rising oil prices

U.S. Central Command Social Networking Service (SNS)

As the first ceasefire negotiations between the United States and Iran have broken down, the U.S. will begin implementing maritime traffic blockade measures against Iranian ports starting at 10:00 a.m. on April 13 (Korea Standard Time: 11:00 p.m. on April 13). While ships not traveling to or from Iran will be able to navigate freely through the Strait of Hormuz, concerns are rising that if Iranian oil is blocked from entering the market, international oil prices could surge once again.

On April 12 (local time), the U.S. Central Command announced on its social networking service (SNS) X (formerly Twitter) that "in accordance with President Trump’s proclamation, from 10:00 a.m. on April 13 (U.S. Eastern Time), a blockade will be implemented on all maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports."

This blockade includes all Iranian ports located in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. The U.S. Central Command explained that it would be applied fairly to vessels of all countries entering and leaving Iranian ports and coastal areas. However, it added that the freedom of navigation for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports would not be impeded.

All vessels have been advised to continuously monitor navigation notification broadcasts and to contact the U.S. Navy on VHF Channel 16 when operating in the approaches to the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz.

Cutting Off Iran’s Negotiating Leverage... Lower Risk Than a Kharg Island Military Operation

This is a follow-up measure to President Trump’s announcement of a “reverse blockade” of the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier that morning, after the first face-to-face negotiations with Iran broke down, President Trump stated on the social networking service (SNS) Truth Social, "The U.S. Navy, the most powerful in the world, will immediately begin procedures to blockade all ships entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz."

He continued, "I have ordered our Navy to identify and block any vessel on the high seas that has paid passage fees to Iran," adding, "Anyone who pays illegal transit fees will not be able to safely navigate international waters."

President Trump’s announcement appears to be aimed at blocking Iran from using the Strait of Hormuz as a negotiating lever and, in turn, pressuring Iran, even at the cost of a short-term rise in oil prices.

Helima Croft, Global Head of Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, commented, "President Trump is demonstrating that he is prepared to accept chaos as the U.S. enters the summer driving season, in order to maintain a zero-tolerance stance on uranium enrichment against Iran."

The U.S. assessment is that launching a reverse blockade of the strait carries less risk than conducting a military operation against Iran. Dennis Ross, former U.S. diplomat and Middle East envoy, explained, "We could occupy Kharg Island, but that would leave U.S. forces extremely vulnerable. This measure is a much wiser strategy than occupying Kharg Island."

There is a particular reason the U.S. is implementing the reverse blockade in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Directly blockading the Strait of Hormuz could turn U.S. military bases in the Middle East into targets. Therefore, Bloomberg reported that the U.S. chose to implement the reverse blockade in areas outside the range of Iranian missiles.

Oil Exports Expected to Drop by Additional 1.5–1.7 Million Barrels... Will Oil Prices Surge Again?

Brent crude oil, the international benchmark price, fell to $95.20 per barrel at the close on the 11th (local time) ahead of the first ceasefire negotiations.

Market experts warn that the U.S. reverse blockade strategy in the Strait of Hormuz could further exacerbate oil product shortages. The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic chokepoint through which about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply passes. Before the Iran war, around 138 ships per day transited the strait on average, but now, only 12 ships do so. If even this traffic is interrupted, energy transport volumes will decline further.

Amrita Sen, founder of Energy Aspects, commented, "Until now, the U.S. has focused on keeping oil prices low, so it allowed Iran’s crude oil and product exports, even easing sanctions to let more buyers import. However, if a reverse blockade is implemented, an additional 1.5–1.7 million barrels per day of export volume will be restricted, on top of the more than 10 million barrels per day already halted."

Whenever Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz and tensions have risen, Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude have each surged past $100. Brent crude, the international benchmark price, fell to $95.20 per barrel at the close on April 11 ahead of the first ceasefire negotiations, but with the U.S. reverse blockade announcement, prices could surge again.

Kevin Book, head of research at ClearView Energy Partners, said, "Tension tends to breed more tension," and "Blocking Iranian oil tankers could drive up prices and worsen supply shortages."

Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad Energy, noted, "The key point is that the likelihood of a sustained ceasefire has plummeted," predicting that when crude oil futures trading resumes overnight on April 12, prices could soar back above $110 per barrel.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.