[Arminomics]① One-Hour BTS Gwanghwamun Concert to Generate Economic Impact of 1.5 Trillion Won Plus

Comeback Stage at Gwanghwamun Square on March 21, First in 3 Years and 9 Months
Estimated 260,000 Attendees Including ARMY and International Fans
Travel Spending by Foreign and Regional Visitors Could Reach Up to 1.47 Trillion Won
Combined

#Three days before the group BTS's return performance, on the 18th, despite the gloomy weather with a steady spring rain, about 150 visitors formed a long line in front of the Shinsegae Duty Free Myeongdong branch entrance in Jung-gu, Seoul, even before opening hours. Foreign fans holding purple merchandise symbolizing the BTS fan club ARMY or with hair dyed the same color stood out in the crowd. The atmosphere was electric as fans and tourists who had come to Korea to see the BTS members in person mingled together. Chelsea (22, Australia), who arrived in Korea the previous day, said, "I came to Korea with my parents for two weeks to see the concert. We plan to spend a week in Seoul and a week in Busan," adding, "I wanted to buy BTS merchandise in advance, so the duty-free shop was my first stop."

Foreign tourists, including the BTS fan club ARMY, are waiting to enter at the entrance of Shinsegae Duty Free Myeongdong branch. Photo by Jaehee Kwon

The surrounding commercial districts were no exception. Stores in Gwanghwamun and Myeongdong, anticipating the BTS boom, were busy preparing to welcome customers, resembling a military operation. Convenience stores located within about a 1-kilometer radius of the concert venue plan to increase their stocks of key items such as bottled water, drinks, hot packs, and portable chargers by 10 to as much as 300 times compared to usual. Nearby five-star hotels, where both domestic and international visitors will stay, have been fully booked well in advance, and the accommodation rates for hotels below four stars have risen to more than four times the usual weekend price. Major industries such as department stores and duty-free shops also strengthened promotions targeting foreign tourists early on, expecting a trickle-down effect.

The live concert that BTS will hold around Gwanghwamun Square in Seoul on the 21st to commemorate the release of their 5th studio album 'ARIRANG' is projected to have a domestic consumption-boosting effect of over 1.5 trillion won. This concert marks the group's first full-member return stage in 3 years and 9 months since completing military service, drawing worldwide attention. According to police estimates, 260,000 people, including ARMY members from Korea and abroad, are expected to flock to the site on the day of the event. As these attendees book accommodations, move around the concert venue, eat, and drink, it is expected to bring a much-needed boost to the domestic distribution industry, which has been suffering from sluggish local consumption.

Staff members are preparing sales items at a convenience store near Gwanghwamun Square in Seoul ahead of the BTS concert. Photo by Yonhap News

Combined Foreign and Regional Audience Spending to Reach 1.47 Trillion Won

On March 19, The Asia Business Daily estimated, based on the "Economic Impact of BTS Domestic Concerts in the Post-COVID-19 Era" report published by the Korea Culture & Tourism Institute in 2022, that the consumer spending generated by 'BTS Comeback Live: ARIRANG'—including accommodation, transportation, and food sales—could reach up to 1.47 trillion won. This figure is calculated based on the projected travel expenses of foreign audience members visiting Korea and domestic regional audience members staying in Seoul.

Previously, the Korea Culture & Tourism Institute's report analyzed that the economic effect of a single BTS concert in the post-COVID-19 era ranged from 619.7 billion won to as much as 1.2207 trillion won. This estimate applies various multipliers to concert ticket and merchandise sales, as well as foreign tourist spending on transportation and accommodation. However, since this comeback concert is free of charge, the calculation used various scenarios for the number of domestic and foreign visitors to the site on the day, and only considered the expenses these visitors are expected to spend on the day or through overnight stays to estimate consumption generated in the distribution sector.

Specifically, if foreign audience members make up 20% of the total attendees, their combined spending alone is expected to reach approximately 585.3 billion won. This figure is based on the fourth quarter 2023 average per-person expenditure by foreign visitors to Korea (1,801.9 dollars, exchange rate: 1,490 won, including international transportation). Using the Korea Culture & Tourism Institute’s method, which multiplies the average number of accompanying travelers per foreign visitor (average 3.2 companions in Q4 2023, making 4.2 people including themselves), the total is calculated accordingly. If the proportion of foreign tourists increases to 50%, their combined spending would rise to as much as 1.4633 trillion won.

As for regional audience members, excluding those from the Seoul metropolitan area, their spending is estimated to range from a minimum of 3.2 billion won to a maximum of 5.1 billion won for day trips. These figures assume scenarios where foreign audience members account for 50% and 20% of total attendees, respectively. Applying the same proportion of foreign audience members, if regional audience members stay overnight in Seoul, their spending is estimated to range from a minimum of 1.1 billion won to a maximum of 1.8 billion won.

The calculation applied the methodology used by the Korea Culture & Tourism Institute. After excluding the share of foreign audience members from the total, the ratio of metropolitan to regional audience members was set at 60:40, and the regional audience proportion was calculated accordingly. Of the regional audience, it was assumed that 10% would pay for accommodation, while the rest would stay with relatives or acquaintances. The travel expenses for regional attendees were based on the 2024 National Travel Survey statistics, using an average domestic day-trip expenditure of 68,000 won and an average accommodation expenditure of 215,000 won per trip.

Summing all these figures, the total spending generated by regional and foreign fans on the day of the concert is calculated to range from at least 592.2 billion won up to a maximum of 1.4676 trillion won. This does not include the estimated sales of BTS-related MD (merchandising) products sold in the distribution sector. Four years ago, a report estimated that MD sales for a BTS concert with a cumulative audience of 195,000 over three shows amounted to about 13.8 billion won. Considering the total number of attendees and inflation, adding these sales would bring the total consumer spending generated to over 1.5 trillion won.

Photos of BTS members are displayed at a K-pop merchandise store in Myeongdong, Seoul. Photo by Yonhap News

World Tour in 34 Cities, Economic Impact of 8 Trillion Won... Expected to Surpass Swiftonomics

On this day, Bloomberg News reported that the economic impact of this free BTS concert on Korea's economy—including air travel, accommodation, food, and merchandise—would reach about $177 million (approximately 266.3 billion won). Bloomberg estimated, "This far exceeds the average economic effect of $50 million to $70 million generated by Taylor Swift's 'The Eras Tour' in each U.S. city."

BTS is also set to begin a world tour next month, starting with a concert at Goyang Sports Complex on April 9, performing 82 times across 34 cities worldwide. According to global accommodation platform Hotels.com, following the announcement of the tour schedule last January, the number of searches for travel from overseas to Seoul surged by 155% within 48 hours compared to the previous week. Busan, where a concert is scheduled for June, saw search volume spike by as much as 2,375%. French daily Le Figaro, also citing Hotels.com data, reported that accommodation searches in Paris increased by 590% after the comeback schedule was announced, calling it "an amazing example of music tourism." Search volume in the UK also increased by 145%.

The British daily The Guardian also reported that BTS earned an estimated $160 million from a concert held in Las Vegas, USA, in 2021 before the members' military service. Based on this, it is anticipated that the group will generate several times more revenue from the upcoming comeback world tour. If you simply multiply the revenue from that time by the number of scheduled tour locations this year, the total revenue amounts to $5.44 billion, which, at current exchange rates, exceeds 8 trillion won—surpassing Taylor Swift's record and becoming the largest ever.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.