50% for Regime Change, 40% Range for Re-election... Lee Jae-myung 35-36%, Kim Moon-soo 14-17%

Regime Change Prevails Among Moderates... Lee Leads in Head-to-Head Matchups
People Power Party 35-41%, Democratic Party 37-44% in Tight Race
Undecided Voters Decrease as Party Support Solidifies

During the Lunar New Year holiday, opinion polls released by the three major broadcasters showed that the public favoring a "regime change" reached 50%, surpassing those supporting "regime continuation." In the race for the next presidential candidate, Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, led with support in the 30% range, followed by Kim Moon-soo, Minister of Employment and Labor, who garnered support in the 10% range within the ruling party.

Lee Jae-myung, the party leader, and Park Chan-dae, the floor leader, along with other Democratic Party members, visited the Express Bus Terminal in Seocho-gu, Seoul, on the 24th to greet citizens for the Lunar New Year holiday. Photo by Kim Hyun-min

According to the opinion polls released by the three major broadcasters on the 30th, if an early presidential election were held, responses favoring a "regime change" were in the 50% range, while those favoring "regime continuation" were in the 40% range. Notably, among the moderate voters, support for regime change was even stronger.

In the survey conducted by KBS through Korea Research from the 24th to the 26th, 50% responded in favor of regime change, while 39% supported regime continuation, showing an 11 percentage point (p) difference. Among moderates, the gap widened to 28%p, with 57% favoring regime change and 29% favoring regime continuation.

In the survey conducted by MBC through Korea Research International on the 27th and 28th, 50% favored regime change, which was 6%p higher than the 44% who supported regime continuation. However, compared to the previous survey conducted by MBC at the beginning of the year, support for regime change decreased by 5%p, while support for regime continuation increased by 12%p.

In the survey conducted by SBS through Ipsos from the 23rd to the 25th, 50% favored regime change, which was 7%p higher than the 43% supporting regime continuation. Among moderates, the difference between regime change (55%) and regime continuation (36%) was 19%p.

Minister of Employment and Labor Kim Moon-soo is speaking at the National Report Meeting on the Legislative Proposal of the Labor Vulnerable Support Act held at the National Assembly on the 26th. Photo by Kim Hyun-min

Regime Change 50% · Continuation 39-44%... Regime Change Prevails Among Moderates

In the next presidential candidate preference survey, Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, ranked first with 35-36% support in a multi-candidate race. Compared to the 50% support for regime change, Lee’s support was somewhat lower, but in a two-candidate race, his support rose to the 40% range, maintaining an advantage over ruling party candidates.

Within the ruling party, Minister Kim Moon-soo recorded the highest support at 14-17%.

Looking at the results by broadcaster, in the KBS survey, Lee received 35%, Kim 14%, and former leader Han Dong-hoon 7%. In the SBS survey, Lee (35%) led Kim (15%), Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo (8%), former leader Han (7%), and Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon (6%). In the MBC survey, Lee (36%) received higher support than Kim (17%), Mayor Oh (7%), Mayor Hong (6%), and former leader Han (5%).

On the morning of the 24th, a day before the Lunar New Year holiday, Kwon Young-se, the Emergency Response Committee Chairman of the People Power Party, along with the party leadership, is greeting citizens returning home at Seoul Station. Photo by Jo Yong-jun

Lee Jae-myung in the 30% Range · Kim Moon-soo in the 10% Range... Lee Holds Advantage in One-on-One Matchups

In one-on-one matchups, Lee showed an advantage over major ruling party candidates. According to the SBS survey, Lee led Kim 42% to 28%, and also held the lead against Mayor Oh (42% to 26%), former leader Han (41% to 22%), and Mayor Hong (41% to 27%).

The KBS survey was conducted by Korea Research from the 24th to the 26th, interviewing 1,000 people nationwide aged 18 and older via telephone by interviewers. The response rate was 18.4%, with a sampling error of ±3.1%p at a 95% confidence level.

The MBC and SBS surveys were conducted by Korea Research International (27th-28th) and Ipsos (23rd-25th), respectively, both using 100% mobile phone interviews. The sampling error was ±3.1%p at a 95% confidence level, with response rates of 18.9% and 20.8%, respectively.

Detailed survey information can be found on the website of the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.