K-Battery Holds Half of North American EV Market... Declines in Europe Amid Chinese Offensive

SNE Research Analyst Day Held
Chinese Batteries Surpass 70% Global Market Share
North America's EV Transition Likely Delayed by 2-3 Years

There is a forecast that if the United States, the main stage for domestic battery companies, modifies or abolishes the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the transition to electric vehicles will be delayed by 2 to 3 years. It was also revealed that China's market share in the global electric vehicle battery market has exceeded 70%. Analysts suggest that China has established a foundation for continuous growth in the electric vehicle market even without subsidies.

At the 3rd Analyst Day held on the 12th by market research firm SNE Research, Oh Ik-hwan, Vice President of SNE Research, predicted, "China will fully enter the commercialization stage from 2024 and will be able to grow without subsidy policies in the future, but North America and Europe will only enter the commercialization stage around 2029 to 2030."

Regarding the modification or abolition of the IRA, which has attracted attention under the second term of the Donald Trump administration, he forecasted that it would take a considerable amount of time, adding, "There will be no significant impact in the next 1 to 2 years, but in the mid to long term, the speed of market transition to electric vehicles is expected to be delayed by 2 to 3 years."

In the North American market, Chinese companies' market entry is restricted, and Korean battery companies still show strong performance. As of October, K-batteries grew by 42% compared to the same period last year, and their market share expanded to 49%. SNE Research predicted that the market share of Korean battery companies in the North American market will increase, but how much the market will grow will be a key factor.

In regions excluding the North American market, K-battery companies are expected to be overshadowed by Chinese companies. Vice President Oh stated, "The global market share of Chinese battery companies recorded 73.6% as of October this year," and added, "The three Korean battery companies recorded over 50% market share in Europe and North America, but their market share is declining due to the expansion of Chinese companies' entry."

Chinese battery companies are expanding overseas to resolve the oversupply in the domestic market. In the global market excluding China, the market share of Chinese battery companies surpassed 39% by October this year, up from 35.1% last year. The market share of Chinese electric vehicles in the global market excluding China also increased from 12.5% last year to 15.9% this year.

In Europe, as Chinese battery companies actively enter the market, domestic battery companies fell by 7% compared to the same period last year. K-battery market share dropped from 56% last year to 50% this year, while Chinese battery companies' share rose from 42% to 48%.

In the Asian market, due to aggressive strategies by Chinese electric vehicle companies such as BYD and Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC), the market share of Chinese batteries rose to 64%. Meanwhile, despite LG Energy Solution's strong performance, the market share of domestic battery companies fell from 44% last year to 31% this year.

SNE Research forecasted that the global electric vehicle market will grow by 18% to 16.5 million units this year. The current chasm in the electric vehicle market is expected to continue until 2026 and recover from 2027.

Vice President Oh analyzed, "The Chinese electric vehicle battery market will continue to grow at a rate in the 20% range even after 2025, but the market excluding China is expected to have a lower growth rate in 2025-2026 compared to this year," adding, "It is inevitable that K-battery and global battery companies will face difficulties."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.