"Trump or Harris, US-China Relations in Tension Mode Regardless"

'Gwanseman' Trump Tightens Pressure More Than Biden
Harris, in Line with Biden
"Whoever Wins, Sanctions Will Be Strengthened One or Two Steps More"

With the U.S. presidential election approaching this November, there is a forecast that regardless of whether Vice President Kamala Harris, the leading Democratic candidate, or former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, wins, the U.S.-China conflict will persist.

On the 24th (local time), Nick Marro, Chief Analyst of Global Trade at The Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC, "No matter which party takes power, U.S.-China relations will continue to be confrontational."

Economists and trade experts say that if former President Trump succeeds in regaining the presidency, it is highly likely that trade wars and economic decoupling policies will be taken to a new level. While the Biden administration prioritized strategic competition with China, it is expected to intensify further under a Trump administration.

Eswar Prasad, a Cornell University economics professor who previously headed the China and Finance Research Division at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), predicted, "A Trump victory is likely to increase trade and economic hostility between the U.S. and China. Trade and financial decoupling between the two countries will deepen."

Professor Prasad explained that although both former President Trump and President Biden have taken protectionist stances toward China, their strategies differ significantly. He said, "Former President Trump relied on tariffs to block imports from China," adding, "President Biden has maintained tariffs and raised tariffs on certain imports while focusing more on restricting China's technology transfer and semiconductor access."

The biggest difference in China policy between former President Trump and President Biden is tariffs. Nicknamed the 'tariff man,' Trump initiated a trade war with China during his tenure and imposed tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports. He also stated that if he wins this election, he would increase tariffs on Chinese imports by 60%.

Steven Weimers, a professor of International Political Economy at Georgetown University, said, "It's not certain whether former President Trump is willing to take such extreme measures, but it is possible that tariffs could be increased to some extent during a second term."

William A. Reinsch, Senior Advisor for International Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), explained that tariffs risk triggering another trade war, which would impose enormous economic costs on most goods trade between the two countries and ultimately come to an end. He said it is unlikely that Trump’s goal is complete decoupling from China, but rather to negotiate favorable terms.

However, even if Vice President Harris wins, U.S.-China relations are expected to remain cold. Experts including Professor Prasad indicated that the approach toward China under a Harris administration would likely be similar to that of the Biden administration, continuing Biden’s tariff policies.

The Biden administration’s China policy focuses on restricting China’s access to advanced technology and fostering domestic industries and supply chains in the U.S. through subsidies. In key industries such as advanced semiconductors, it has expanded export control lists and limited investments, implementing policies similar to some under the Trump administration. A representative policy is the CHIPS Act, signed in August 2022.

Chris Miller, author of "Chip War" and a professor at Tufts University, predicted that since the CHIPS Act passed with bipartisan support, policies like the CHIPS Act will remain a priority regardless of who wins the election. He said, "Regardless of who wins, I expect the U.S. to strengthen sanctions measures one or two steps further."

If former President Trump takes an independent approach to quickly suppress China, Vice President Harris is expected to maintain the Biden administration’s multilateral approach. Lori Daniels, director of the Asia Society Policy Institute, explained that under the Trump administration, U.S.-China communication channels were significantly reduced, but the Biden administration has emphasized diplomatic efforts. For example, the Biden administration has pursued close cooperation with allies such as Japan and the Netherlands in semiconductor sanctions.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.