North Halts Provocation... Is China and Russia Watching? [Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club]

Missile Launch Restraint Despite Enhanced ROK-US Joint Exercises
China's 'Yanghui' and Russia's 'Presidential Election' Diplomatic Caution

North Korea is quiet. Unlike in the past when it launched various missiles during the South Korea-US joint exercises, this year it is responding in a low-key manner. Experts on North Korea assess that the reduced intensity of response is aligned with the schedules of China and Russia.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

From the 4th to the 14th of this month, South Korea and the US are conducting the first half of the year’s joint exercise, “Freedom Shield” (FS). This year’s exercise is the largest ever, including an outdoor field training exercise (FTX). There are 48 events such as joint tactical live-fire drills, air-to-air live-fire, air-to-ground bombing, and airborne assaults. This is more than double the 23 events held last year.

North Korea’s response has been quiet. During last year’s first half joint exercises, it launched intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs) called “Hwasal,” and also tested a new weapons system, the nuclear unmanned underwater attack vehicle “Haeyil.” In the second half joint exercises, it launched cruise missiles and military reconnaissance satellites.

This year, the only action was an attempt to jam Global Positioning System (GPS) signals from the 5th to the 7th, the days following the start of the exercise. According to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, GPS jamming signals were detected multiple times from north of the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea toward the airspace over the five western islands controlled by South Korea (Baengnyeongdo, Daecheongdo, Socheongdo, Yeonpyeongdo, and Soyeonpyeongdo). However, the signal output was low, causing no significant damage to military or civilian systems. North Korea has previously attempted GPS jamming timed with South Korea-US joint exercises. After the 2010 Ulchi Freedom Guardian (UFG) exercise, it attempted GPS jamming targeting the Key Resolve (KR) exercise in March 2011 and the South Korea-US joint air combat exercise in April-May 2012.

North Korea has stopped launching cruise missiles. It had heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula with a total of 11 provocations in January and February this year alone. In January, it launched several new strategic cruise missiles “Bulhwacheol-3-31” and “Hwasal-2.” On the 2nd of last month, it conducted a power test of a large warhead for cruise missiles over the West Sea and test-fired a new anti-air (surface-to-air) missile.

Experts believe this is due to consideration of the political schedules of its friendly countries China and Russia. China, a traditional ally, held its largest annual political event, the “Two Sessions,” and the Russian presidential election, where Vladimir Putin is expected to be re-elected, is approaching on the 17th. These factors are seen as reasons for restraint in provocations.

A shift in national policy direction is also detected. Claiming to have exceeded last year’s economic performance goals, North Korea is showing signs of continuing economic development, presenting the nationwide construction project “Local Development 20X10 Policy” earlier this year.

Some analysts predict that provocations remain possible depending on the deployment of US strategic assets. With three days left until the end of the South Korea-US joint exercises and the possibility of US strategic asset deployment still present, it is difficult to fully assess North Korea’s response posture at this time.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.