Growing Sense of Crisis in the Third Zone... Struggling to Reach 3% Proportional Vote Share

Reform New Party and Sae Mirae Support Rates at 2-3%
Missed Golden Time After Merger Collapse
"Difficulty Securing Figures Amid Extreme Politics"

With the 22nd general election just a month away, the sense of crisis in the third zone is growing. This is due to increasing concerns that the third zone parties may fail to surpass the legally mandated 3% party support threshold required to be allocated proportional representation seats.

According to political circles on the 8th, recent polls show that the Reform New Party led by Lee Jun-seok and the New Future co-led by Lee Nak-yeon have proportional party support ratings lingering around 3% and the 2% range, respectively. In some surveys, the Reform New Party even recorded proportional party support ratings in the 5% range, but considering the margin of error (standard error 95%, confidence level ±3.1 percentage points), it is still assessed that they have not entered a stable zone.

The reason why the Reform New Party and New Future, which initially emerged as alternatives to the two major parties, are now facing instability in entering the proportional representation seats in the National Assembly is largely due to the breakdown of their merger talks just 11 days after the agreement, causing them to miss the golden time for a rebound in support. Analysts say they lost not only the founding convention effect but also the prime opportunity to secure the non-affiliated voter base before the two major parties established their satellite proportional representation parties.

Withdrawal of Reform New Party Merger
(Seoul=Yonhap News) Reporters Han Sang-gyun and Shin Jun-hee = Lee Nak-yeon, co-representative of the Reform New Party, declared the withdrawal of the merger on the 20th.
On the left is co-representative Lee Nak-yeon holding a press conference to withdraw the merger at the New Future Party headquarters in Yeouido on the same day, and on the right is co-representative Lee Jun-seok holding a press conference at the National Assembly one hour later. 2024.2.20
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The problem is that as the general election approaches, the cards for a rebound in support for the two third zone parties are becoming increasingly unclear. Although the Reform New Party and New Future have been focusing on policy promotion day after day since the merger talks broke down, it is becoming more difficult to generate buzz than at the beginning of their founding. This is because voters’ strategic voting psychology is stronger in the current polarized political situation. Strategic voting refers to voters choosing the major parties, considering that voting for minor candidates would ultimately be a wasted vote.

Experts have identified the stagnation in third zone support as stemming from a 'lack of prominent figures.' They analyze that the parties have failed to create a 'wind' through fresh faces. Since the breakdown with New Future, the Reform New Party has not secured a single incumbent lawmaker, and New Future, too, has only formed an electoral alliance for the general election with key pro-Moon Jae-in (Pro-Moon) faction lawmakers who left the Democratic Party?Hong Young-pyo (4-term, Incheon Bupyeong) and Seol Hoon (5-term, Gyeonggi Bucheon)?rather than merging.

The Jo Guk New Party (Jo Guk Innovation Party) is also an obstacle. The Jo Guk New Party recently recorded proportional representation party support ratings of around 13-15% in various polls. Political commentator Park Sang-byeong said in a phone interview, "In a situation where polarized factional politics are severe, it is difficult for the third zone to secure prominent figures," adding, "The Jo Guk New Party should be seen not as a third zone party but as the vanguard of the anti-Yoon (anti-Yoon Suk-yeol) faction within the Democratic Party."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.