"Three Wars Dominate the World... Biggest Risk This Year is the US Presidential Election"

Eurasia Group's 'Top 10 Global Risks for 2024'
War 'America vs. America' More Dangerous Than Russia-Ukraine Conflict
November Election "Test for US Democracy... Global Trust in US Undermined"

"The Russia-Ukraine conflict entering its third year, the Israel-Hamas war in its third month, and now the beginning of the United States versus itself. These three wars will dominate the world."

This year, the biggest risk threatening the world was identified as the U.S. presidential election in November. It is expected to have unprecedented impacts on global security and the economy due to deepening political divisions. The worsening Russia-Ukraine war and the Middle East crisis sparked by the Israel-Hamas conflict were also named among the top three risks.

Image courtesy of Eurasia Group website

On the 8th (local time), the U.S. political consulting firm Eurasia Group released its "Top 10 Global Risks for 2024," naming the U.S. presidential election as the number one risk. Eurasia Group described this year’s greatest danger as "The United States vs. itself," predicting that "the U.S. election will test American democracy at levels unseen in the past 150 years and weaken the U.S.'s credibility on the global stage." They explained that the U.S. election could determine not only America’s fate but also that of the world’s 8 billion people.

The upcoming U.S. presidential election in November is likely to be a rematch between the 81-year-old incumbent President Joe Biden (Democratic Party) and former President Donald Trump (Republican Party), who is embroiled in various legal risks. However, both candidates face criticism for being unfit for the presidency, and Eurasia Group analyzed that regardless of which party wins, claims of election "fraud" could plunge the country into chaos. This division is expected to intensify from the moment both parties finalize their presidential candidates. Eurasia Group assessed, "The 2024 election will worsen problems no matter who wins. Essentially, it’s a 'coin toss.'"

Specifically, if former President Trump wins, it is predicted that various foreign policies, including support for the Ukraine war, will change drastically, weakening the U.S.'s position on the world stage. Reduced support for Ukraine would put the European Union (EU) on edge, which in turn would strengthen Russia’s resolve. In the Middle East, Israel, backed by Trump’s support, is expected to take a more aggressive stance. The recently thawing U.S.-China relations are also likely to deteriorate again. Economically, the policies of a second Trump administration are expected to be more radical and divisive.

The second biggest risk this year, following the U.S. election, is the "Middle East on the brink." Eurasia Group described the Middle East as a "powder keg," diagnosing a high likelihood that the frontlines of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza will expand further this year.

Specifically, there is a possibility of Iran’s involvement as Israel attacks Hezbollah, a pro-Iran armed group in Lebanon; the pro-Iran Houthi rebels in Yemen continuing attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes, potentially prompting direct intervention by the U.S. and its allies; and attacks by Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria causing U.S. military casualties, which could lead to large-scale U.S. retaliation. Eurasia Group warned, "All these pathways pose risks to the global economy," adding that "deep political divisions surrounding the conflict are spreading throughout the Middle East. This could also trigger political and religious extremism across the Middle East and beyond."

The third risk is the Ukraine war. It is forecasted that Ukraine, which has already lost much of the international community’s attention and support, will ultimately fail to reclaim the territories seized by Russia, effectively leading to a partition. Eurasia Group stated, "This is an unacceptable outcome for Ukraine and the West, but it will become reality," noting that "Russia now holds battlefield initiative and material superiority. It could capture more Ukrainian territory this year." They added, "This year is a turning point in the war," warning, "Ukraine faces an increasingly difficult situation. Without a strategic plan, it could lose the war as early as next year."

In particular, Eurasia Group emphasized that these three wars will dominate the world, pointing out that "none of them have adequate guardrails to prevent the situation from worsening." Furthermore, there is no leader with the will or capability to prevent or manage the chaos. Eurasia Group defined this as a "world without global leadership, or G-Zero," stating, "We are witnessing the direct consequences of a G-Zero world in these three wars. This G-Zero will lead to more conflicts in the future."

Additionally, uncontrolled artificial intelligence (AI) was named among this year’s top 10 risks. Eurasia Group likened AI to a gray rhino, noting that the pace of AI technology development far outstrips governance discussions, allowing powerful AI tools to spread beyond government control. This could lead to AI-generated misinformation being exploited to worsen various elections and geopolitical conflicts ongoing in the Middle East and Ukraine. Eurasia Group also pointed out that Russia, North Korea, and Iran?considered the world’s most powerful "rogue states"?are strengthening alliances and military cooperation, posing a threat to global stability.

Other risks included in this year’s top 10 are ▲China’s failure to recover economically ▲competition for critical minerals ▲persistently high inflation ▲the return of El Ni?o ▲and the cultural wars in the United States.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.