[Initial Observation] Significantly Reduced Elementary School Entrants, The Population Issue Becoming Reality

Sharp Decline in Student Numbers... School Mergers Proceeding Even in Seoul
Enrollment Expected to Fall Below 200,000 by 2030
Automatic Assignment of After-School Care Classes Should Be Considered Upon Enrollment

The government’s projected economic growth rate for this year is 2.2%, which is similar to the potential growth rate that can be achieved without causing inflation. Although this is an improvement compared to last year’s poor performance in the 1% range, it still means that the economy will not achieve more than a basic level of success. Foreign media have even declared that Korea’s growth has ended, coining the term ‘Peak Korea.’ This is yet another crisis facing the Korean economy, which had previously drawn global attention by overcoming the national bankruptcy crisis during the 1997 foreign exchange crisis. Can Korea once again escape this crisis with its characteristic dynamism and cohesion? While the entire nation hopes so, it is difficult to predict. To break free from the trap of low growth, an increase in the working-age population is essential, but the reality is moving in the opposite direction, showing signs of ‘shrinkonomics.’

On the 4th, prospective new students are moving to the assembly hall during the 'New Student Preliminary Gathering' held at Wonmyeong Elementary School in Seocho-gu, Seoul. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

The number of children entering elementary school this year is a preview of this trend. According to Statistics Korea, the number of children born in 2017, who are primarily entering elementary school this year, is 357,771, a sharp decrease of more than 48,000 compared to the 406,243 born in 2016. As the school-age population declines due to low birth rates, school consolidations are taking place not only in rural and fishing villages but also in Seoul. The problem is that the reduction in the number of students and school downsizing will not end this year. By 2030, when children born in 2023?the year with the lowest birth rate on record?enter school, the number may fall below 200,000.

Even if immigration is promoted to counter population decline, it is not a fundamental solution. If the low birth rate problem is not resolved, the population issue can become a time bomb at any moment. This is likely why the Yoon Seok-yeol administration has made responding to the population crisis a key economic policy this year and introduced various childbirth and childcare support measures. However, with many young people increasingly unwilling to marry, let alone have children, policies that simply offer money for having children are unlikely to be effective.

Ultimately, it is obvious but necessary that our society must become a ‘child-friendly society.’ The first step is to create a society where women do not have to worry about career interruptions due to childbirth and childcare. Only then can families who have their first child decide to have a second.

Returning to the elementary school enrollment statistics, among the 357,771 children born in 2017, 187,854 are only children. It is highly likely that these families are now at the last crossroads in deciding whether to have a second child. Of course, making this decision is not easy. The timing of a child entering elementary school often coincides with the second career interruption dilemma for working mothers. On top of worries about whether their child will adapt well to the unfamiliar social environment of school, the fact that children leave school around 1 p.m., earlier than kindergarten, leads many mothers to consider quitting their jobs. While some suggest sending children to after-school care, in reality, there is not enough capacity to meet demand. The curriculum of after-school care programs is also not very diverse.

If these concerns of working mothers related to elementary school enrollment can be alleviated, the number of families deciding to have a second child may increase slightly. To this end, it is worth considering prioritizing automatic placement in after-school care programs upon elementary school enrollment, similar to the automatic parental leave systems introduced by some companies. Establishing diverse and high-quality after-school care programs to meet various needs is fundamental. Expanding the budget for after-school care by allocating a larger portion of the annually increasing education grants would not be difficult. Of course, there may be criticism that schools are not places for childcare, but to transform into a society that is truly child-friendly, schools cannot be an exception. This is the last opportunity for families considering a second child, and missing it will make the consequences easy to predict. For us, now is the golden time.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.