The Upcoming ROK-US-Japan Summit: Key Points Highlighted by US Media

With the trilateral summit between South Korea, the United States, and Japan just one day away on the 18th (local time), local assessments are pouring in, describing it as a "momentous gathering" and a "pivotal moment for Asian security." At this historic first-ever standalone summit held at Camp David, the U.S. president's retreat, the leaders are expected to formalize the establishment of the trilateral consultative body and announce cooperative initiatives. Some analysts suggest it will send a "very important message to China."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The Washington Post (WP) highlighted the significance of the summit in an article on the 17th titled "Four Things to Watch at President Biden’s Camp David Summit," stating, "This summit marks the first time President Biden has invited foreign officials to Camp David and the first-ever standalone summit involving the three countries. It is a momentous gathering." Dennis Wilder, a Georgetown University professor who handled Asia policy during the George W. Bush administration, told WP that South Korea and Japan usually keep their distance even at international summits, calling this an "unprecedented event." Robert Sutter, a professor at George Washington University, told Politico that this is a "really big deal" and that "a new era could be dawning." President Biden traveled to Camp David in the afternoon to welcome President Yoon Seok-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio.

WP identified the first key point to watch at the trilateral summit as "how far the three countries will cooperate on security." While the summit will not launch a collective security alliance like NATO, it is seen as laying the groundwork for broadly enhancing cooperation on security and mutual defense. The outlet reported, "For the first time, the three leaders are expected to publicly acknowledge that their national securities are interconnected and pledge to consult each other in the event of regional security crises." Specific measures mentioned include regular trilateral meetings, establishing a hotline, regular trilateral military exercises, and sharing security-related data. CNN also cited a senior administration official saying the summit will emphasize that "a challenge to one country is a challenge to all of them."

The second point of focus is whether economic tensions will ease. Economic security issues will also be a major topic at the summit. Initiatives to strengthen supply chains for key technologies such as semiconductors are expected to be announced. WP particularly emphasized that South Korea and Japan have expressed deep concerns about the impact of the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the CHIPS and Science Act (CSA) on their domestic industries. It also noted that the Treasury Department’s recent detailed guidelines allowing exceptions for leased vehicles signal "signs of a solution."

WP also pointed out that the momentum for trilateral cooperation could be hindered by the 2024 U.S. presidential election and other countries’ elections and political uncertainties. This concern was also raised during a briefing by John Kirby, White House National Security Council (NSC) Coordinator for Strategic Communications, at the Foreign Press Center the previous day. WP described the current situation as "fragile," noting that both President Yoon and Prime Minister Kishida are facing stagnant approval ratings. The outlet warned that if the ruling party fails to secure a majority in next year’s South Korean general election, President Yoon’s efforts could be hampered. It also noted that the possibility of former President Donald Trump, who has been lukewarm toward the alliance, winning the U.S. presidential election next year cannot be ruled out.

The New York Times (NYT) also highlighted the political momentum, stating, "President Yoon’s efforts to improve relations with Japan have sparked public anger ahead of the April general election, and Prime Minister Kishida’s political standing is weak domestically." It added that both South Korea and Japan are concerned that if former President Trump wins the U.S. election next year, commitments to cooperation with the United States could be withdrawn. Politico commented that "if improvements in South Korea-Japan relations continue, it could become part of President Biden’s legacy," but also described it as a "fragile agreement."

Finally, WP identified China’s real-time reaction as a key point to watch. Local media and experts have long analyzed that this trilateral summit will send a "very important message to China (NYT)." China is also showing strong wariness, viewing the trilateral summit as an effort to build a "mini NATO." WP emphasized the need to closely monitor how China will respond during and immediately after the summit. In anticipation, the three countries are expected to engage in some level of signaling control. Kirby’s pre-briefing remark that "this is not about China" was made in this context. Politico analyzed that "given the economic interdependence between Japan, South Korea, and China, the joint statement by the three leaders will likely not explicitly criticize China."

However, there is also the possibility of Chinese retaliation similar to the past deployment of THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) in South Korea. Wang Yi, China’s Foreign Minister, has publicly warned South Korea and Japan not to cooperate too closely with the United States. The NYT reported that "the possibility of Chinese economic retaliation is a serious concern for both South Korea and Japan, which consider China their largest trading partner." Daniel Snyder, a professor at Stanford University, said, "Both South Korea and Japan are uneasy about the idea of a new Cold War economic conflict with China," but advised, "They need to try to find a balance between engagement, competition, and confrontation."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

South Korea, the United States, and Japan have previously held trilateral summits at the 2023 Madrid NATO summit and the May Hiroshima G7 summit. However, this is the first time they are holding a standalone trilateral summit. The White House stated that this is the first time President Biden has invited foreign leaders to Camp David since taking office, demonstrating how much he values relations with South Korea and Japan. An administration official told CNN that Camp David’s nature as the president’s personal retreat symbolizes "reconciliation, friendship, and a new beginning." The last time foreign leaders visited Camp David was in 2015 when former President Barack Obama invited Gulf state leaders.

Located in the Catoctin Mountains of Maryland, Camp David was established in 1942 during President Franklin Roosevelt’s administration. President Biden is expected to hold the summit with President Yoon and Prime Minister Kishida at the Laurel Lodge at Camp David. They are also expected to have a working lunch at the Aspen Lodge, a type of cabin. The Associated Press reported that there is a possibility the three leaders will be seen walking together on the trails in casual, "no-tie" attire.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.