Pro-India Ruling Party Expected to Retain Power in Nepal General Election... Securing Majority and Coalition Formation Are Key

Ruling NC Party Sweeps Major Districts
New Political Party Emerges as a Variable in Coalition Formation

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] In the ongoing vote count of Nepal's general election, the ruling party and pro-India party, Nepali Congress (NC), is expected to have a high possibility of retaining power. However, it is anticipated that no party will secure an outright majority in this election either. Since 1990, Nepal has held 30 general elections, and concerns are rising that political instability will continue amid interference from major powers such as China and India behind the scenes of political conflicts.

According to local media including the Himalayan Times on the 24th (local time), NC has won in 14 constituencies in the early counting of the House of Representatives. If the current trend continues, NC is expected to secure 57 out of the 165 directly elected seats in the House, ranking first. Nepal's House of Representatives consists of a total of 275 seats, with 165 elected by direct vote and the remaining 110 by proportional representation. The Maoist Central Nepal Communist Party (CPN-MC), which has agreed to form a coalition with NC, had secured 3 seats by the previous day and is leading in 14 constituencies.

On the other hand, the main opposition force and pro-China oriented Unified Marxist-Leninist Nepal Communist Party (CPN-UML) is relatively trailing. CPN-UML has won 5 constituencies and is leading in 39, but is significantly behind the ruling coalition, making it difficult to take power even if a coalition is formed.

Accordingly, it is highly likely that the pro-India coalition led by NC and CPN-MC will bring in smaller parties to successfully retain power. As a result, current Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba is expected to be reappointed for the sixth term. Nepal, a parliamentary system country, has the prime minister as the head of government with actual power, while the president serves as the ceremonial head of state.

As the coalition formation process makes the participation of newly established parties with few seats essential, their influence is expected to grow. Geja Sharma Wagle, a Nepalese political expert, explained, "In a situation without an absolute majority party, young politicians from new parties with vision will play a key role in forming the new government," adding, "Voters want existing parties to change and work for them."

The vote counting, which began on the 20th, is expected to continue for about another week. This is because many mountainous areas make ballot box transportation difficult, and the counting is done manually, causing delays.

If the pro-India coalition of NC and CPN-MC retains power through this general election, diplomatic competition between China and India surrounding Nepal is expected to intensify further. Traditionally, Nepal has been a region strongly influenced by India, but since the abolition of the monarchy in 2008 and ongoing political instability, China's influence has grown. China has supported pro-China factions of the Nepal Communist Party, intensifying competition between China and India.

With the rivalry between major powers involved behind political conflicts, Nepal's political instability is expected to prolong further. Since the introduction of the multi-party system in 1990, Nepal has experienced political turmoil with nearly 30 changes of prime minister. Currently, Nepal is suffering from a severe economic crisis as its main industry, tourism, collapsed after the COVID-19 pandemic, and prices of essential goods have surged due to the Ukraine war.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.