US Retailers Expected to See First Real Sales Decline in 14 Years This Year-End

Nominal Sales Expected to Increase by 4.5%... 1.2% Decrease Excluding Product Price Hikes 'First Time Since 2008'

[Photo by Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Byung-hee] Major foreign media reported on the 21st (local time) that the year-end shopping season sales of U.S. retailers are expected to record the first real decline since the 2008 global financial crisis.

According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, retailers expected a nominal sales growth rate of 4.5% this year. However, as retailers raised product prices in response to high inflation, real sales, excluding the increase from price hikes, actually decreased by 1.2%.

This is the first time in 14 years since 2008 that U.S. retailers' real sales during the year-end shopping season have declined. In 2008, when the global financial crisis hit, real sales dropped by more than 5%, and nominal sales also decreased at that time.

So far this year, there are no significant signs of a sharp contraction in consumer spending. U.S. retail sales last month increased by 8.3% year-over-year, surpassing Wall Street expectations.

It is analyzed that U.S. consumers, after exhausting the cash received from the federal government's stimulus measures during the COVID-19 pandemic, have recently been increasing consumption using credit cards.

According to a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, credit card usage in the third quarter increased by 15% compared to the same period last year, marking the highest growth rate in over 20 years.

However, as the central bank, the Federal Reserve (Fed), recently decided on four consecutive giant steps in monetary policy meetings, causing interest costs to rise significantly, there are concerns that the consumer economy could cool down rapidly.

Last week, Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, warned of the risk of a slowdown in consumer spending, saying, "Consumers are stepping back" and "changing their attitude on how to spend."

Betsy Graseck, a director at Morgan Stanley, stated that credit card loans surged in the third quarter, which has led to credit card delinquencies increasing at the fastest rate since 2008.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.