What Are the Prospects for Korea in the World Cup Round of 16 Seen from Abroad?

Only 2 out of 8 USA Today Soccer Reporters Predict South Korea Advances to Round of 16
Sports Statistics Analyst Opta Estimates South Korea's Round of 16 Chance at 8.2%
UK Insurance Firm Lloyd Predicts South Korea Finishes Last in Group H and Is Eliminated

On the 18th (local time), Son Heung-min of the South Korean national football team at the 2022 Qatar World Cup adjusts his mask while training at the Al Egla training ground in Doha, Qatar. Photo by Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Hyunjung] Overseas forecasts continue to be pessimistic about South Korea's advancement to the round of 16 in the 2022 FIFA Qatar World Cup.

The American newspaper USA Today recently reported predictions from eight soccer journalists regarding the teams advancing to the round of 16 in the Qatar World Cup group stage. South Korea is in Group H along with Uruguay, Portugal, and Ghana. Among the eight journalists, only two predicted that South Korea would advance to the round of 16. Seven journalists were optimistic about Uruguay advancing, the highest number, followed by four for Portugal and three for Ghana. South Korea was seen as having the lowest chance of advancing among the four teams in Group H. When asked which country would finish first in Group H, four journalists chose Portugal, three chose Uruguay, and one chose Ghana. No journalist voted for South Korea.

The countries predicted unanimously as first place in Groups A to D and G were the Netherlands, England, Argentina, France, and Brazil, respectively. For Group D, consisting of France, Denmark, Australia, and Tunisia, all eight journalists agreed on France as first place and Denmark as second place. For Group E, which includes Germany, Spain, Japan, and Costa Rica, Germany received six first-place votes and two second-place votes, while Spain received two first-place votes and six second-place votes. No one predicted Japan or Costa Rica to advance to the round of 16.

The country most predicted to win the World Cup was Brazil, with five votes, followed by Argentina with three votes. Seven journalists predicted France would be the runner-up, and one chose Belgium. The Golden Ball for the best player was split among Kylian Mbapp? (France) with three votes, Lionel Messi (Argentina) with two votes, and Neymar (Brazil) with one vote.

Global sports statistics and information analysis company Opta estimated South Korea's chance of advancing to the round of 16 at about 8.2%. According to Opta's recent forecast for this year's Qatar World Cup, South Korea has a 9.4% chance of finishing first in Group H and a 19.7% chance of finishing second. Within Group H, Portugal has the highest probability of finishing first at 55.7%, followed by Uruguay at 26.9%, Ghana at 8%, and South Korea third. For second place, Uruguay leads with 35.3%, followed by Portugal at 26.9%, South Korea at 19.7%, and Ghana at 18.1%, with South Korea maintaining third place. This suggests that Portugal and Uruguay are expected to advance to the round of 16 as first and second in Group H.

Opta commented on South Korea, stating, "The extent of Son Heung-min's (Tottenham) injury will be a major variable," and predicted that if Son Heung-min cannot play, it will be almost impossible for South Korea to pass the group stage. They added, "Half of South Korea's six World Cup wins came during the 2002 tournament, which they co-hosted," and noted, "Among the 22 countries that have played more than 30 World Cup matches, South Korea has the lowest winning percentage," giving a negative evaluation of South Korea.

Opta's top predicted winner is Brazil, with a 16.3% chance of winning. Following Brazil are Argentina (13.1%), France (12%), Spain (8.9%), and England (8.8%). Among Middle Eastern and Asian countries, the host nation Qatar has the highest winning probability at 0.3%, followed by South Korea and Japan at 0.2%, Australia and Iran at 0.1%, and Saudi Arabia at 0%.

There are even more pessimistic forecasts. According to the British corporate insurance company Lloyd's prediction, South Korea is expected to finish last in Group H and be eliminated. Lloyd's predicts Portugal and Uruguay will advance as first and second in Group H. Lloyd's forecasted the semifinal matchups as Brazil vs. Argentina and England vs. Spain, with England and Brazil meeting in the final, where England is predicted to win. Lloyd's promotes that it correctly predicted Germany's 2014 and France's 2018 World Cup victories.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.