"Current Quarantine Indicators Similar to Early Stage of 6th Wave"... What Are the Three Concerns?

[Asia Economy Reporter Byun Seon-jin] As the subsiding COVID-19 has recently turned to a spreading trend again, the key question now is whether the 7th wave will come earlier than the initially expected December. Although the quarantine authorities cannot determine whether this is the start of a major wave, they have urged vaccination for high-risk groups as the decline has stalled.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Will the 7th Wave Come Earlier Than December?

Jung Ki-seok, head of the COVID-19 Special Response Team and member of the National Infectious Disease Crisis Response Advisory Committee, stated at a regular briefing on the 24th that the 7th wave of COVID-19 would officially begin “when the weekly daily average of 20,000 cases continues and then suddenly shows an increasing trend.” At the briefing on the 17th, Jung mentioned that considering the epidemic patterns in countries like Germany and France, “Korea might experience a full-scale resurgence in early December,” but given the recent COVID-19 trends, there is a possibility that the resurgence could occur earlier.

According to data from the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, the weekly daily average number of confirmed cases in Korea, which had been declining since the 6th wave, hit a low of 20,169 on the 11th, then showed an increasing trend with 21,382 (14th), 24,061 (17th), and 25,771 (24th). The point at which the weekly daily average jumps to around 30,000 cases is likely to mark the start of the resurgence. Some predict that this could happen around late October, coinciding with Halloween (31st) and the autumn foliage season, when the spread tends to intensify.

Reproduction Number Exceeds 1, Daily Cases Increasing Compared to Previous Week

The reproduction number for the third week of October (16th?20th) was 1.09, exceeding 1. The reproduction number indicates how many people one infected person infects on average; a value above 1 means the epidemic is spreading. The last time this number exceeded 1 was nine weeks ago during the peak of the 6th wave in the third week of August (14th?20th). At that time, the emergence of the Omicron variant BA.5 coincided with daily cases in the high 100,000s (186,652 on August 16 and 178,480 on August 17), leading some to consider it the start of a COVID-19 resurgence.

However, Park Hyang, head of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters’ quarantine team at the Ministry of Health and Welfare, explained at a regular briefing on the 21st that “since the data is viewed as a weekly average, the overall decline has slowed,” and that the question of a resurgence needs to be observed further. It can be interpreted as the COVID-19 decline stagnating after the 6th wave.

The daily number of confirmed cases has increased compared to the previous week for four consecutive days. From the 21st to the 24th, the increase compared to the previous week was 1,177 (21st), 4,074 (22nd), 4,800 (23rd), and 3,277 (24th), showing a general upward trend. The number on the 24th was mechanically lower than the 23rd due to fewer diagnostic tests on Sunday. The ‘doubling’ phenomenon (cases doubling compared to the previous week) that occurred early in the 6th wave on the 18th (from 15,476 to 33,248 cases) also raised concerns about a resurgence.

Urging Vaccination for High-Risk Groups

The quarantine authorities see the participation rate in the updated vaccines as a variable affecting the timing and scale of the wave. Jung urged, “High-risk groups should be prioritized for vaccination, and even those who are not high-risk but live with or frequently meet high-risk individuals should get vaccinated.”

The COVID-19 vaccines currently administered for the winter season are the ‘first updated vaccines’ developed to respond to the Wuhan strain and Omicron BA.1 variant, while the ‘second updated vaccines’ targeting the recently dominant BA.4 and BA.5 variants received emergency use approval on the 17th. The authorities plan to announce the utilization plan for the second updated vaccines on the 26th. They also stated that the currently used updated vaccines are effective against BA.1 and XBB variants as well.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.