SCMP "Li Qiang Likely Next Chinese Premier... Xi's Intentions for Long-Term Rule"

Will Ri Chang's Appointment Break the 'Deputy Prime Minister Before Prime Minister' Unwritten Rule?
Promotion's Top Priority Implied as 'Loyalty'
"Wants to Build a 'Young Team' to Support Him for Over 5 Years"

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Kim Hyun-jung] The 63-year-old Li Qiang, Party Secretary of Shanghai, is reportedly the leading candidate to succeed Li Keqiang as Premier of China, according to Hong Kong's South China Morning Post (SCMP). The analysis suggests that if the top leadership breaks the unwritten rule of promoting vice premiers to premier and instead injects younger blood, it could be a strategic move by President Xi Jinping for his 'long-term rule.'

On the 21st, SCMP cited multiple sources saying, "Wang Yang, Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, who was the ideal candidate for the next premier, is now more likely to retire completely alongside Li Keqiang," and "Li Qiang is emerging prominently in the increasingly competitive race for the premier position." Earlier, the U.S. Wall Street Journal (WSJ) also confirmed with sources close to the Communist Party leadership that Li Qiang is expected to be appointed.

Li Qiang is known as a 'closest aide' who served as secretary to President Xi when Xi was Party Secretary of Zhejiang Province. Although there was some accountability criticism for the Shanghai lockdown due to COVID-19 prevention failures, Li was the figure who led the city lockdown according to party directives despite internal opposition.

The Post noted that since all previous Shanghai Party Secretaries have been promoted to the Politburo Standing Committee, Li has a high chance of being selected for the top leadership. However, this would break the party's long-standing unwritten rule of becoming premier only after serving as vice premier. SCMP explained, "Except for Chen Liangyu, who was ousted due to a corruption investigation, all Shanghai Party Secretaries in the past 33 years have become members of the Politburo Standing Committee," adding, "The obstacle for him is the party tradition of 'vice premier first, then premier,' which applied to everyone except Zhou Enlai and Hua Guofeng." It continued, "However, this will not be a barrier for President Xi," and "If it aligns with a greater purpose, he will not hesitate to break convention."

The 'greater purpose' was identified by the Post as President Xi's long-term rule. In particular, "As the top leader preparing for a record third term, Xi wants to build a 'young team' that can support him for more than the next five years," it reported.

Bloomberg also assessed that the new leadership appointments will soon reveal the 'scope of Xi's power.' On the 20th (local time), the agency said, "The appointments to the Politburo Standing Committee will show how he will govern over the next five years," suggesting the most likely scenario is breaking existing norms and appointing many close aides. Especially, "The most controversial move would be appointing Li Qiang, who led the Shanghai lockdown, as premier," indicating that "Xi values 'loyalty' most in promotions, which will also raise doubts about economic policy."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.