Top Chinese Leadership Faces Major Overhaul... "Li Chang Likely Next Premier"

Among 7 Politburo Standing Committee Members, 4 Expected to be Replaced
'Economic Chief' Premier Li Keqiang Anticipated to Fully Retire

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Kim Hyun-jung] There is a forecast that the Politburo Standing Committee, the top leadership of China, will undergo a large-scale reshuffle. Premier Li Keqiang, who often showed differences of opinion with President Xi Jinping on economic policies, is expected to fully retire, and Li Qiang, the representative 'Xi Jinping faction' Shanghai Party Secretary, is emerging as his successor.

Hong Kong's South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported on the 18th that "President Xi Jinping is firmly controlling the reorganization of China's leadership, and while forming a new leadership for an unprecedented third term, it could bring greater changes than expected," adding that up to four of the current seven Politburo Standing Committee members could be replaced.

The actual results are expected to be revealed after the closing of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (Party Congress) this weekend, at the first plenary session of the newly formed 20th Central Committee (1st Plenum). SCMP reported that Li Zhanshu, Chairman of the National People's Congress, and Han Zheng, Vice Premier, are expected to retire following the customary retirement age of 68 (7 up 8 down). Although 67-year-old Premier Li Keqiang still has one year until retirement age, it is analyzed that he will step down from the premiership, which is limited to two terms. While it is theoretically possible for him to remain on the Politburo Standing Committee and take other positions such as Chairman of the National People's Congress, SCMP predicts that he will fully retire.

Following Li Zhanshu, Han Zheng, and Li Keqiang, the fourth retiree is expected to be one among Wang Yang, Chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC); Wang Huning, Secretary of the Central Secretariat; and Zhao Leji, Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. Wang Yang has been the most likely candidate for the next premier, but just three days after the opening of the Party Congress, speculation about his retirement has emerged.

SCMP analyzed, "The customary age limit is still a consideration for all candidates except President Xi," and added, "If Chairman Wang fully retires following Li Keqiang, the competition for China's next premier will begin."

Those expected to secure the new Politburo Standing Committee seats include Ding Xuexiang, Director of the Party Central Office and a political aide to President Xi; Li Xi, Party Secretary of Guangdong Province; Chen Min'er, Party Secretary of Chongqing; and Li Qiang, Party Secretary of Shanghai.

Western media have pointed to Li Qiang as the next premier. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 17th (local time), citing sources, that "Li Qiang is a leading contender to be officially appointed premier at the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (the 'Two Sessions') next March." The Journal stated, "Facing increasing domestic and international challenges, from a sluggish domestic economy to Western resistance, President Xi is preparing to strengthen his power by appointing loyalists to the highest ranks of the Communist Party hierarchy," adding, "One of those allies is Li Qiang, who struggled with the COVID-19 lockdowns." Regarding Ding Xuexiang, the report said, "He once had close ties with President Xi's family and worked as a veteran secretary," and quoted sources saying he is expected to be appointed Vice Premier early next year.

Chen Gang, a senior researcher at the East Asian Institute of the National University of Singapore, told WSJ, "If President Xi can make Li Qiang premier, he will be able to strengthen control over economic and social policy formulation," adding, "China's reform and opening-up pace will slow, zero-COVID policies will continue, and Li (Li Qiang) will rely on stimulus measures."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.