Will Sweden's General Election Become a 'One-Seat Margin' After Far-Right Surge?

Narrow Margin in Far-Right Democratic Party Surge... Voting Results Expected to Be Confirmed on the 14th
With 95% of Votes Counted, Right-Wing Coalition Leads by 1 Seat... Left-Right Conflict Intensifies
If Conservative Coalition Changes Government... Centrist Party's Kristersson Expected as Prime Minister

From the left, Magdalena Andersson, current Prime Minister of Sweden; Jimmie ?kesson, leader of the Sweden Democrats; Ulf Kristersson, leader of the Moderate Party
[Photo by AFP, Reuters, Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Byung-hee] The Swedish general election held on the 11th (local time) unfolded as an extremely close race, with the possibility of the outcome being decided by a single seat. With the far-right Sweden Democrats making significant gains in this election, a seismic shift is expected in the Swedish political landscape, which had been dominated by the left. The final election results are expected to be confirmed on the 14th, after counting votes from overseas citizens, early voting, and postal ballots.

According to CNBC on the 12th, with 95% of the votes counted, the conservative right-wing coalition supporting Moderate Party leader Ulf Kristersson is projected to secure 175 out of 359 seats, while the progressive coalition supporting Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson of the ruling Social Democrats (SAP) is expected to win 174 seats. The most notable aspect of this election is the high likelihood that the long-standing first-place Social Democrats and second-place Moderate Party dynamic, which has persisted since the 1979 general election, will be broken.

The nationalist far-right Sweden Democrats currently hold 20.6% of the vote, leading the traditional largest conservative party, the Moderate Party, by 1.5 percentage points. Among the four parties in the conservative coalition, the other three parties have seen their support decline compared to the 2018 general election. Conservative voters have effectively shifted their support to the far-right party.

Progressive voters have also strengthened the Social Democrats, the largest party on the left, intensifying the left-right divide. The Social Democrats’ vote share currently stands at 30.5%, up 2.1 percentage points from the 2018 general election.

The Sweden Democrats were founded in 1998 based on a neo-Nazi movement and have expanded their support by opposing European integration, Islam, and immigration. Current leader Jimmie ?kesson has led the party for 18 years since 2005. After becoming party leader, ?kesson distanced the party from extremist factions within and broadened its popular base. The Sweden Democrats entered parliament in the 2010 general election with 5.7% of the vote, increasing their share to 12.9% in 2014 and 17.5% in 2018. In a 2009 debate, ?kesson stated that Muslim immigrants were the greatest external threat to Sweden since World War II.

If the current configuration is confirmed, the ruling progressive coalition will relinquish power for the first time in eight years since 2014. Even if the conservative coalition succeeds in changing the government, the prime minister is expected to be Moderate Party leader Ulf Kristersson, the leader of the third-largest party, rather than Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie ?kesson. Within the conservative coalition, Kristersson is preferred over ?kesson. There is a risk that if ?kesson attempts to become prime minister, the conservative coalition could fail to form a government.

Kristersson said, "I do not know what the outcome will be, but I am fully prepared to form a new, stable, and dynamic government for all Swedish people."

The New York Times predicted that the election results are extremely close and that pre-election negotiations between parties were insufficient, so it may take time to form a government.

Sweden has traditionally been regarded as the most progressive and politically stable country in Europe. Governments have typically been formed within days after general elections, but with the rise of the Sweden Democrats, it took more than four months to form a government after the 2018 election. Henrik Oscarsson, a political science professor at the University of Gothenburg, analyzed, "This election shows that problems are emerging in Sweden, one of the most politically stable countries in the world," attributing it to the rise of the Sweden Democrats.

Kristersson has stated that he will never cooperate with the far-right Sweden Democrats. However, since the Sweden Democrats became the third-largest party in the 2018 general election, he has worked with them from 2019 to form a government. Even if Kristersson becomes prime minister, he is expected to have to consider the Sweden Democrats’ stance.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.