'Semiconductor Cold Wave' Hits NAND After DRAM... "Up to 18% Drop in Q3"

TrendForce Downgrade Forecast from 8-13% to 13-18%
"Price Decline Due to Inflation and Demand Contraction"

238-layer high-tier NAND flash semiconductor by SK Hynix. (Photo by SK Hynix)

[Asia Economy Reporter Moon Chaeseok] In the third quarter, following the main memory semiconductor D-RAM, NAND flash prices are also expected to fall by up to 18% compared to the second quarter. As the price decline of these two memory semiconductors expands, concerns are growing over the profitability decline of major memory companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

On the 24th, TrendForce, a Taiwanese market research firm, forecasted that due to weak demand, NAND flash prices in the third quarter will drop by 13-18% compared to the second quarter. A month ago, the estimated price decline for NAND flash in the third quarter was 8-13%, so the range has widened.

TrendForce analyzed, "Inflationary pressures are weakening the global economy, leading to downward revisions in demand for various consumer applications since the second quarter," and added, "While server demand remains stable, the inventory adjustment period has arrived, intensifying the oversupply in the NAND flash market."

By product category, prices for embedded multimedia cards (eMMC) and universal flash storage (UFS) are expected to fall by 13-18% in the third quarter. This is also a wider range compared to the previous forecast of 8-13% a month ago.

Prices for enterprise and consumer solid-state drives (SSD) are expected to decline by 10-15%. The initial forecasted decline was 5-10% for enterprise and 8-13% for consumer SSDs.

The downward price estimate for 3D NAND wafers is expected to remain at 15-20%, consistent with previous forecasts.

TrendForce expects the price decline trend to continue at least through the fourth quarter, assuming manufacturers do not reduce their production capacity plans.

In addition to NAND, prices for the major memory semiconductor D-RAM are also expected to fall sharply. In a report on the 11th, it was forecasted that due to oversupply and increased inventory, consumer D-RAM prices in the third quarter will drop by 13-18% compared to the second quarter. As demand decreases and inventory accumulates, prices are also falling.

According to TrendForce, the fixed transaction price of general-purpose PC D-RAM products fell by 14.0% month-on-month in July, and the fixed transaction price of general-purpose NAND flash products for memory cards and USB also declined by 3.8% compared to the previous month.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.