[War & Business] The United States Returning to the Middle East

On the 15th (local time) in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, U.S. President Joe Biden (left) and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (right) are exchanging fist bumps. Jeddah (Saudi Arabia) = Reuters·Yonhap News Photo by Reuters and Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] "Now, the role of the United States in Iraq is completely over."

On October 21, 2011, then U.S. President Barack Obama declared that all U.S. troops stationed in Iraq would be withdrawn by the end of that year. This statement marked the official start of the U.S. 'exit strategy' from the Middle East.

After the Iraq and Afghanistan wars in the early 2000s, the number of U.S. troops stationed locally had increased to as many as 200,000, but this number sharply decreased to just a few thousand. During the presidency of Donald Trump, the complete withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan was decided, which eventually led to the Taliban regaining control of Afghanistan.

The key figure who led this Middle East exit strategy was Joe Biden, then Vice President under the Obama administration and now the current U.S. President. At the time, he strongly advocated for redeploying U.S. forces, which were overly concentrated in the Middle East, to counter the growing influence of China and Russia. The major roadmap for the Indo-Pacific focus strategy, which the Biden administration is currently emphasizing, was reportedly already outlined during that period.

This is also why Middle Eastern countries are not paying much attention to President Biden’s remarks about the U.S. ‘return’ during his recent Middle East tour. Although President Biden declared during this visit, "We will not allow China, Russia, and Iran to fill the vacuum in the Middle East," the reactions from Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries have been lukewarm. Regarding cooperation for increasing oil production, Saudi Arabia distanced itself by stating that no agreements were made during this visit. Particularly, Saudi Arabia’s distrust of the U.S. has grown significantly due to the heavy losses it suffered in clashes with the Houthi rebels in Yemen.

The Houthi rebels, known to be backed by Iran, have repeatedly attacked the Abqaiq oil field?Saudi Arabia’s largest oil field and lifeline?as well as oil pipelines. Not only them, but Hezbollah, the armed Lebanese faction supported by Iran, and Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria have caused unrest in various places, severely shaking the status and security of Saudi Arabia, the leading country of the Arab League.

However, since the declaration of the Middle East exit strategy, the U.S. has not provided any combat support to Saudi Arabia or the Arab League countries. Instead, it has led negotiations to restore the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA - Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), attempting to reintegrate Iran into the international community.

Economically, the symbiotic relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia has long been broken. Since the large-scale development of shale oil in the U.S. in 2014, the U.S. has become the world’s top oil producer and Saudi Arabia’s biggest competitor. With the disappearance of U.S. military support, Saudi Arabia no longer has a reason to cling to its relationship with the U.S. Currently, Saudi Arabia places greater importance on its relations with China, its largest oil customer, and Russia, its main partner in oil price coordination.

Ultimately, analysts widely agree that unless the U.S. expresses its Middle East return strategy through actions rather than words, it will be difficult to gain cooperation from Saudi Arabia and the Arab League countries. However, sending troops again to the Middle East, where over $100 billion in taxes have been spent annually, poses the risk of a crushing defeat in the November midterm elections. The world’s attention is focused on whether the Biden administration can properly unravel the complex domestic and international issues surrounding the Middle East.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.