[War & Business] Turkey Emerges as Mediator in the Black Sea

On March 29, during the 5th peace talks between Ukraine and Russia held in Istanbul, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who acted as a mediator, is giving a speech. Istanbul (Turkey) = AP·Yonhap News Photo by AP and Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Recently, Turkey has been appearing most actively in international news. As Turkey has taken the lead in resuming grain exports blocked by Russia's blockade of Black Sea ports, it is emerging as a mediator in the ceasefire negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.

Considering Turkey's image of balancing diplomacy between Russia and the West while demanding various concessions from the United States and Western countries, this has come as a surprise. The Turkish government has mobilized its naval vessels to escort grain export ships and even pledged to remove mines hidden throughout the Black Sea, aiming to lead mediation between Ukraine and Russia.

The sudden shift of Turkey, which had been acting strictly according to its national interests, to a mediator role is evaluated to have complex diplomatic and security motives behind it. Turkey's complicated circumstances are closely related to the Bosporus Strait, the only access point to the Black Sea. The Bosporus Strait is a narrow strait dividing Istanbul, Turkey's largest city, east and west, and all ships worldwide must pass through here to enter the Black Sea.

Turkey holds the key to this strait. Since the Montreux Convention of 1936, the Turkish government has been entrusted by the international community to manage the Bosporus Strait and has the obligation to control all warships attempting to enter the Black Sea via the Bosporus during wartime. According to this agreement, the Turkish navy is currently blocking both Russian and Western warships heading to the Black Sea.

However, the Turkish government has not controlled the passage of Russian vessels disguised as merchant ships transporting ammunition and weapons, claiming it has no authority to inspect merchant ships. The United States and Western countries have tacitly overlooked this pro-Russian act, considering Turkey's position as a key NATO power.

But recently, as inflation has surged worldwide, the situation is changing. If the West reaches a point where it cannot endure rapid price increases, concerns have been raised that Western countries might break the Montreux Convention and directly dispatch fleets to the Black Sea. If Western fleets are deployed, Turkey would be drawn into the conflict zone. The dominant analysis is that Turkey's recent mediation diplomacy aims to prevent such a catastrophic situation in advance.

Whether Turkey's precarious balancing mediation diplomacy will succeed remains uncertain. Ukraine and Russia keep repeating their respective positions, and negotiations have yet to find a breakthrough. Within Turkey, public opinion is increasingly uneasy about the government's moves to get too close to Russia, a traditional adversary.

Nevertheless, Turkey's mediation diplomacy is attracting global attention regardless of its success or failure. Especially, Asian countries that will need to conduct delicate balancing diplomacy amid the future US-China rivalry are closely watching Turkey's mediation as a living textbook.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.