Record High Voter Turnout, Overflowing Swing Voters... Intense Battle Until the Last Moment

Over 44 Million Voters in 20s Presidential Election... Casting Vote 30% in 2020, Over 13 Million Aged 60 and Above

[Asia Economy Reporter Baek Kyunghwan] The number of voters for the 20th presidential election has surpassed 44 million for the first time in history. The proportion of voters in their 20s and 30s, identified as the casting vote for this election, has reached 30%, while voters aged 60 and above have also reached a record high of 13 million. With less than ten days remaining until election day and the two leading presidential candidates locked in a tight race, the number of voters by region and gender is expected to have a decisive impact on the outcome.

According to the National Election Commission on the 28th, the total number of voters eligible to participate in the presidential election on the 9th of next month is 44,197,692. This figure combines 44,168,510 registered in the domestic voter list and 29,182 in the overseas voter list, an increase of 203,445 compared to the recent 21st National Assembly election (43,994,247).

The increase in voters is also evident compared to recent elections. In the 19th presidential election held in 2017, the number of voters was 42,432,413. The number of voters in this election has increased by 4.1%, and in the 2018 local elections, it was recorded as 42,907,715.

◆ One in five voters is in their 50s = The largest variable in this election is voters by age group, with those in their 50s being the largest. They total approximately 8.62 million, accounting for 19.5% of all voters. This is followed by those in their 40s (about 8.15 million, 18.5%) and those in their 60s (about 7.22 million, 16.4%). The proportion of voters in their 20s and 30s exceeds 30% (about 13.26 million).

In previous polls, Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party candidate, consistently showed strength among voters in their 40s. Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party candidate, holds an advantage among voters aged 60 and above. Ultimately, the outcome will be determined by who captures the votes of those in their 20s, 30s, and 50s. Moreover, considering that the proportion of voters who answered they have not yet decided on a candidate among those who said they would vote is concentrated in the 20s and 30s age group, the movement of undecided voters until the last moment will inevitably be the biggest variable.

The increase in voters aged 60 and above is also noteworthy. Combining voters in their 60s (about 7.22 million) and 70s (about 5.9 million) totals approximately 13.12 million, nearly 29.8% of all voters. This is a significant increase compared to the proportion of voters aged 60 and above (24.4%) five years ago.

◆ More than half of female voters are undecided = By gender, female voters (50.4%) outnumber male voters (49.6%). However, the proportion of voters who answered that they have not yet decided on a candidate is higher among women than men in opinion polls. In some surveys, men tend to support candidate Yoon, while women tend to support candidate Lee, making the gender variable difficult to predict.

Looking at regional indicators, where political tendencies are relatively distinct, Gyeonggi Province has the highest number of voters. Known as candidate Lee’s stronghold in this election, it has a total of 11,428,857 voters (25.9%), accounting for one in four voters nationwide. This is followed by Seoul (8,336,646 voters, 18.9%) and Busan (2,920,041 voters, 6.6%).

In the progressive-leaning Jeonnam (about 1.58 million) and Jeonbuk (about 1.53 million), 6.9% of all voters reside, while conservative-leaning Daegu (about 2.04 million) and Gyeongbuk (about 2.27 million) account for 9.7% of voters. Seoul, where progressive and conservative support rates are similar, has about 8.33 million voters (18.9%). Additionally, the Chungcheong region, where both candidates Lee and Yoon are focusing their efforts, has 4.68 million voters confirmed.

The choice of 18-year-olds in this election is also a noteworthy factor. This generation is voting in a presidential election for the first time, having been granted voting rights starting from the 2020 general election. Although the number of voters aged 18 to 19 is only 980,546 (2.2%), their votes are important given the close nature of the race.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.