How far will the Omicron spread go... Could paralyze hospitals and the delivery industry

Omicron Twice as Fast as Delta
Concerns Over 'Workforce Shortages' if Self-Isolation Cases Surge
Risk of Paralysis in Essential Social Functions Like Healthcare, Logistics, and Care
Health Authorities Urge "Increase Vaccination Rates and Establish Business Continuity Plans"

On the 27th, citizens who visited the temporary COVID-19 screening clinic at Seoul Station Plaza in Jung-gu, Seoul, are waiting in line to get tested. / Photo by Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Lim Juhyung] As the number of COVID-19 cases caused by the Omicron variant rapidly increases, concerns are growing that industries requiring face-to-face contact such as healthcare, logistics, and caregiving may be destabilized. The government is making every effort, including adjusting self-quarantine criteria, to prevent widespread social damage.

◆The 'Omicron Wave' Intensifies... Highly Infectious but Lower Fatality Rate

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters (CDCH) of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA), as of midnight on the 26th, the number of new COVID-19 cases reached a total of 13,012. This marks the first time in over two years since the outbreak of COVID-19 in Korea that the daily confirmed cases have exceeded 10,000.

The sharp surge is believed to be due to Omicron. According to the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters (CDSCH), as of the third week of this month, the detection rate of the Omicron variant in Korea reached 50.3%, making it the dominant strain.

Countries in Europe and the United States, where Omicron became the dominant strain earlier than in Korea, have also experienced 'explosive infections.' In France, daily confirmed cases exceeded 500,000, and in the U.S., more than 1 million infections were reported in a single day on the 3rd (local time).

The Omicron variant has a much lower fatality rate compared to other coronaviruses, but its infection rate is nearly twice as fast. / Photo by Yonhap News

The rapid transmission speed of Omicron has also been confirmed through domestic research. According to the CDCH, Omicron's transmissibility is twice that of the Delta variant. However, the fatality rate is recorded at 0.16%, which is one-fifth of Delta's 0.8%. In other words, while the infectiousness is much stronger, it generally causes only mild symptoms.

Some have expressed optimism that these characteristics of Omicron could bring an end to the COVID-19 pandemic. Because it spreads quickly but is much safer compared to other variants, it is explained that the entire population could more easily develop immunity to the virus.

In this regard, Hans Kluge, Director of the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Europe, stated on the 23rd, "More than 60% of the population in Europe could be infected with Omicron by March," and added, "We can consider that we are moving toward the end of the pandemic."

◆Hundreds of Thousands May Be in Daily Self-Quarantine... Concerns Over 'Labor Shortage Crisis'

However, concerns are growing that the Omicron wave could instead trigger another crisis. Although the low fatality rate poses less threat to the healthcare system, it is pointed out that it could cause social and economic crises.

Until recently, Korea's quarantine policy was based on the so-called '3T strategy.' The 3Ts stand for testing, tracing, and treatment. This involves identifying confirmed cases through PCR testing, tracing close contacts through epidemiological investigations, isolating them to break the chain of virus transmission, and providing treatment to those in need.

A job posting at a store in the United States. Due to the spread of Omicron, the number of people in self-quarantine has surged, intensifying the global labor shortage. Photo by Yonhap News

The problem arises when the number of confirmed cases becomes too large, causing the number of close contacts to multiply exponentially. Currently, the KDCA forecasts that if the Omicron-driven 'doubling' (the phenomenon where the number of confirmed cases doubles at regular intervals) continues, daily confirmed cases could reach up to 120,000 by the end of February.

Assuming one confirmed case generates an average of three close contacts, by the end of February, there could be a total of 480,000 people in quarantine daily in Korea.

If nearly 500,000 workers 'disappear' every 24 hours, it will inevitably have a tremendous negative impact on the economy. This is especially true for face-to-face services that cannot switch to remote work. In particular, serious labor shortages could occur in sectors essential to public health, safety, and daily life, such as healthcare, logistics, and caregiving, which inherently require face-to-face contact. This means that socio-economic infrastructure could be threatened by the virus.

Such situations have already occurred overseas, where the Delta and Omicron waves hit earlier than in Korea. A representative example is the 'pingdemic' phenomenon in the United Kingdom. 'Pingdemic' is a neologism combining the 'ping' sound of notifications from a mobile application and 'pandemic.'

The UK self-isolation application that caused the so-called 'pingdemic' phenomenon. / Photo by Internet homepage capture

In the UK, an app was used to send self-quarantine alert messages to close contacts. When infections peaked in July last year, hundreds of thousands of people were classified as self-quarantined and could not go to work. This 'pingdemic' severely paralyzed the UK logistics industry and nearly threatened economic recovery.

◆KDCA: "If Cases Surge, Essential Social Functions May Collapse... Third Dose Vaccination Is Essential"

Given this situation, the government is making every effort to prevent a 'labor shortage crisis' caused by Omicron.

From the 26th, the government has implemented revised isolation criteria for confirmed cases and close contacts. Previously, all confirmed cases testing positive by PCR were required to self-isolate for 10 days, and close contacts were isolated for 7 days.

However, from now on, only those who have completed the booster shot (third dose) among fully vaccinated individuals will be subject to 'passive monitoring' instead of self-quarantine if classified as close contacts. This means that close contacts need only prove a negative PCR test result on days 6 to 7 after classification, and no separate self-quarantine is required. The self-isolation period for confirmed cases is also reduced from 10 days to 7 days.

Jung Eun-kyung, Commissioner of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, is announcing the Omicron variant's share and trends of COVID-19, the status and characteristics analysis of variant occurrences, and requests for the Lunar New Year holiday on the afternoon of the 24th at the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency in Cheongju, Chungbuk. / Photo by Yonhap News

Regarding this, KDCA Commissioner Jung Eun-kyung warned at a COVID-19 regular briefing on the 24th, "Although the Omicron variant has a low severity rate, its high transmissibility poses a risk of large-scale outbreaks in a short period," adding, "This could place a serious burden on quarantine and medical responses. Even if individual severity is low, the scale of social damage could increase."

She continued, "If infections accelerate and spread among the active young and middle-aged population, work absences could disrupt the maintenance of social functions," emphasizing, "To maintain 'essential social functions' such as healthcare, caregiving, and education, it is necessary to increase the third (vaccine) dose vaccination rate and establish and implement sector-specific business continuity plans."

She also stated, "We will change the isolation period for confirmed cases and contacts considering vaccination status and symptoms, reflecting the characteristics of the Omicron variant," and urged, "Especially from this weekend when the Lunar New Year holiday begins, increased human contact may cause a surge in confirmed cases. Please be sure to receive the third dose before visiting your hometown."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.