China Likely to Set Economic Growth Target of '5% or Higher' This Year

Infrastructure Investment Expected to Boost Economy with 8% Increase Year-on-Year
Beijing Achieved 8.5% Growth Last Year, Targets Over 5% This Year

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Jo Young-shin] There is a forecast that the Chinese government will set this year's official economic growth target at '5% or higher.' Last year, the Chinese government's target was '6% or higher.'

Photo by Global Times capture

According to Chinese media such as the state-run Global Times and Beijing Daily on the 7th, major provinces, municipalities directly under the central government, and autonomous regions in China are holding regional sessions of the Two Sessions (National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and National People's Congress) ahead of the nationwide Two Sessions scheduled for March. The National People's Congress, which will be held on March 5, will compile economic targets submitted from each region and finalize this year's economic growth target based on them.

The Global Times forecasted that considering the economic targets of major provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions such as Beijing, this year's economic growth target set by the Chinese government will be 5% or higher.

Tian Yun, Vice Chairman of the Beijing Economic Operation Association, predicted, "Based on the targets set by major metropolitan cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, the overall economic growth target for China will be 5% or higher."

The Global Times reported that at the Central Economic Work Conference held last December, the Chinese leadership emphasized "progress amid stability," and the economic growth target of 5% or higher aligns with this context. The Global Times added that major economic forecasting institutions such as the World Bank (WB) at 5.1%, Deutsche Bank at about 5%, and Morgan Stanley at 5.5% are all forecasting China's economic growth rate to be in the 5% range this year.

Beijing Daily reported that Beijing held the 5th session of the 15th People's Congress the day before and set this year's economic growth target at "5% or higher."

Beijing Mayor Chen Jining stated at the meeting, "Last year, Beijing's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 8.5% compared to the previous year," and reported, "This year, the economic goals are set as consumer price inflation around 3%, unemployment rate within 5%, and GDP growth of 5% or higher."

Sina Finance forecasted that fixed asset investment, including infrastructure, will lead China's economy steadily this year.

Lian Ping, Chief Economist at Zhixin Investment, predicted, "This year, China's fixed asset investment will increase by 6.5% compared to last year," adding, "Infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment will each increase by 8%, and real estate investment will also grow by 4.5%." He explained that at the end of last year, China's Ministry of Finance expanded the local special bond issuance limit to 1.46 trillion yuan (approximately 270.5 trillion Korean won), and most of these bonds will be invested in fixed asset projects.

Wang Jun, Chief Economist at Zhongyuan Bank of China, said, "We expect this year's economic growth rate to be between 5.0% and 5.2%," adding that 5.0% is the lower limit for economic growth. He further noted that considering the scale of China's economy, if the result exceeds 5.5% this year, it would mean the Chinese economy is performing very well.

Meanwhile, some mid-tier local governments that have concluded their regional Two Sessions, such as Henan Province, Guizhou Province, and Hainan Province, are reportedly setting their economic growth targets for this year at 6?8%.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.