When Unemployment Rate Rises by 1%, Theft Crime Rate Increases by 1.5%

1990~2020 Correlation Analysis
No Causal Relationship Found for Violent Crimes

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Gwan-joo] An analysis of the correlation between South Korea's unemployment rate and theft crime over the past 30 years revealed that a 1% increase in the unemployment rate leads to a 1.5% rise in the theft crime rate.

Associate Professor Cho Sung-won of the Department of Economics at Chosun University published a paper titled "The Impact of Unemployment on Robbery and Theft Crime Rates and Policy Implications" in the recent issue of the Police University Institute of Public Safety Policy's journal, "Public Safety Policy Research." Professor Cho analyzed the relationship between unemployment rates and robbery and theft crime rates from 1990 to 2020. This is the first time a time-series analysis technique has been used to examine the correlation between domestic unemployment rates and robbery and theft over a 30-year period.

It is not easy to confirm a causal relationship between unemployment and crime in the short term. In 2020, South Korea's unemployment rate was 4.0%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous year, but the theft crime rate (number of incidents per 100,000 people) was 346.4, a 3.9% decrease compared to the previous year.

However, the results differed in this study based on long-term data. The estimated coefficient indicating the impact of unemployment on the theft crime rate was 1.486. It is estimated that a 1% increase in the unemployment rate results in a 1.5% increase in the theft crime rate. However, when comparing unemployment rates and robbery crime rates using the same method, no significant causal relationship was found.

This study suggests that government unemployment measures supporting job-seeking activities for the unemployed and low-income vulnerable employment groups can contribute to reducing theft crime rates. Expanding the social safety net is directly linked to crime prevention. In the paper, Professor Cho stated, "Various government employment support policies are expected to reduce unemployment while lowering theft crime rates, thereby helping to prevent crime in our society and maintain public safety," adding, "Efforts to expand livelihood support services for the elderly and low-income vulnerable groups who have difficulty sustaining their livelihoods, to eliminate welfare blind spots and strengthen the social safety net, should also continue."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.