[AK Survey] Right-Clicking Lee, Left-Clicking Yoon

Embracing Moderate Voters Nearby on the Opposite Side
Each Advocates Real Estate Tax Relief
Support for Labor Director System Progress

The 2022 Securities and Derivatives Market Opening Ceremony was held on the 3rd at the Korea Exchange Seoul Headquarters in Yeouido, Seoul. Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, and Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party presidential candidate, who attended the event, are applauding. Photo by National Assembly Press Photographers Group

[Asia Economy Reporters Koo Chae-eun and Geum Bo-ryeong] Since Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party of Korea and Yoon Seok-youl of the People Power Party were each confirmed as their party's presidential candidates, they have been critically evaluated as making right-wing and left-wing shifts, respectively. The common analysis is that these moves aim to attract moderate voters who lean toward the opposite ideological side from their own positions. There is also criticism that many of these so-called ‘populist’ policies might be withdrawn after winning the election, but the priority is to secure victory in the presidential race. As this election tightens into a close contest between the two leading candidates, Lee and Yoon, this phenomenon is likely to intensify.

Candidate Lee is particularly focusing on announcing ‘tax cut’ pledges. Emphasizing the notion that former Presidents Park Chung-hee and Chun Doo-hwan also had ‘achievements’ appears to be an effort to broaden his moderate support base. Candidate Yoon is also putting effort into schedules in Honam and continuing left-leaning moves by supporting the labor director system policy. Both candidates are emphasizing ‘youth pledges,’ which is also a strategy to capture the moderate vote. The youth demographic has a higher proportion of moderates than any other age group.

Candidate Lee, who has the dual necessity of expanding the moderate base and distancing himself from the current administration through right-leaning moves, has proposed easing the comprehensive real estate tax, postponing the heavy capital gains tax, and relaxing acquisition tax reduction criteria. This is not unrelated to the fact that 52% of moderates (39.1% favor easing, 12.9% favor abolishing) showed negative perceptions of the comprehensive real estate tax in this newspaper’s recent poll. During his tour of the TK region (Daegu and Gyeongbuk), he mentioned the achievements of former President Chun ("effectively utilized the ‘three lows boom’" at the Chilgok War Memorial in Gyeongbuk last December) and emphasized former President Park Chung-hee’s economic accomplishments ("industrialization made Korea an economic powerhouse" on the 12th of the same month in Mungyeong, Gyeongbuk). This is a move that risks backlash from his existing core supporters, the so-called ‘home rabbits.’ However, it seems he judged that the effect of attracting ‘mountain rabbits’ (swing voters) would be clearer than the risk of losing core support. As a result, Candidate Lee currently leads Candidate Yoon in moderate support by a margin outside the margin of error (30.9% to 24.3%).

Candidate Yoon’s strategy to court moderates can be summarized as a ‘westward advance policy.’ Immediately after being selected as the presidential candidate, he visited Gwangju and Mokpo, emphasizing former President Kim Dae-jung’s ‘spirit of national unity.’ Last month, he held a meeting with members of the Gwangju-Jeonnam Association in Seoul and completed a two-day visit to the Honam region. The People Power Party’s election committee is also actively recruiting figures from Honam. They appointed Rep. Lee Yong-ho (from Namwon, Imsil, Sunchang in Jeonbuk), formerly of the Democratic Party, as co-chair of the campaign committee, and former Democratic Party leader Kim Han-gil is heading the candidate’s direct New Era Preparation Committee.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

In terms of policy, Candidate Yoon is also making left-leaning moves similar to Candidate Lee. For example, Yoon supports the introduction of the labor director system in public institutions, which the People Power Party had opposed. He continues to appeal to the ‘swing voter’ youth demographic. Yoon has pledged ‘youth aides’ in all ministries and personally leads the candidate’s youth committee as its chairman. Since the new year, on January 2, he posted two youth-related posts on Facebook, stating that "solving youth employment issues is the top national agenda" and that "the gaming industry is a sector the government should actively support."

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting, targeting voters aged 18 and over nationwide from December 28 to 29 last month, with 1,009 respondents and an overall response rate of 10.7%. The survey method was 100% mobile phone virtual number and telephone interviews. The sample was extracted using weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.