[Choi Min-gyu's Baseball Prism] FA Big Market KIA... How Long Will the 25.3 Billion Won Investment Effect Last?

FA Big Names Na Sung-bum and Yang Hyeon-jong Signed... 4-6 Year Contracts Worth 25.3 Billion Won
WAR: Na 4.04 - Yang 4.91 Wins, Adding 9 More Wins on Average
Mid-30s Age a Concern with Increased Risk of Decline and Injury

[Image source=Yonhap News]

If the KIA Tigers succeed next year in professional baseball, there is someone Gwangju fans should thank: Ansan from the national archery team. This year, she won gold medals in three events at the Tokyo Olympics: mixed team, women's team, and women's individual. Born in Gwangju and attending Gwangju Women's University, Ansan is a KIA fan. On August 11, she threw the ceremonial first pitch at Gwangju-Kia Champions Field. At that time, she said, "I hope Chairman Chung Eui-sun will sign free agents (FA players)." Chairman Chung is also the president of the Korea Archery Association, to which Ansan belongs.

The wish came true. KIA was the biggest spender in this FA market. They signed outfielder Na Sung-bum, a franchise star from the NC Dinos, and left-handed pitcher Yang Hyeon-jong, who played for the Texas Rangers in Major League Baseball. The contract amounts are enormous: Na Sung-bum signed for 6 years and 15 billion KRW, and Yang Hyeon-jong for 4 years and 10.3 billion KRW. Na Sung-bum's total amount matches the highest-ever FA contract of Lotte Giants' Lee Dae-ho in 2017, which was a 4-year deal. Yang Hyeon-jong's total and average annual amounts are the highest among FA pitchers in history.

KIA, which finished 9th this season, suddenly emerged as a strong candidate for postseason qualification. Major League Baseball teams emphasize the WAR (Wins Above Replacement) statistic. It measures how many more wins a player adds to the team compared to a "replacement-level" player who can be hired at minimum salary. Recently, in MLB collective bargaining negotiations, the team side proposed "eliminating salary arbitration and setting salaries based on WAR."

Na Sung-bum recorded a .312 batting average and 212 home runs over nine seasons from 2013 to last year. His WAR during this period was 42.32 wins, ranking fifth among all hitters. He added an average of 4.70 wins per year compared to replacement-level players who shuttle between first and second teams. His WAR over the last four seasons is 16.16 wins, averaging 4.04 wins per year, which is impressive considering he played only 23 games in 2019 due to injury.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Yang Hyeon-jong has been the ace since joining KIA in 2007. Along with Ryu Hyun-jin and Kim Kwang-hyun, he was part of the left-handed pitcher trio representing Korean baseball. His WAR during the four seasons from 2017 to 2020 with KIA was 19.64 wins, ranking first among all pitchers in that period. His average annual WAR of 4.91 wins surpasses Na Sung-bum's.

Last season, KIA had too many outfielders and starting pitchers with WAR close to zero. Even if these two players perform at their average levels, KIA could gain 9 more wins. This would raise the team's winning percentage from 0.433 to 0.500, making the wildcard game or the preliminary playoff round within reach. However, the probability of postseason qualification in 2023 will be lower than in 2022, and in 2024 lower than in 2023. There is no doubt about the abilities these two players have shown so far. The problem is age. Na Sung-bum will be 33 next year, and Yang Hyeon-jong will be 34. They have long passed the typical prime age of 27 or 28 for baseball players.

As pointed out in a previous column (Smarter MLB Teams... FA Salaries Decline), the professional baseball FA system has flaws. It pays more salary to veterans past their prime than to young players in their peak. This contradicts the economic principle that profit is maximized when marginal revenue equals marginal cost. The gap between salary and team contribution is even larger in Korean professional baseball, where the FA eligibility period is 2-3 years longer than in Major League Baseball.

Since 2015, there have been 24 FA contracts exceeding 8 billion KRW in total amount. Among these, 16 contracts from 2015 to 2018 were analyzed by comparing WAR for four seasons before and after the contract. Of the 16 FA players, only two showed an increase in average annual WAR after signing: Kim Kwang-hyun in 2017 (+0.20) and Kim Hyun-soo in 2018 (+0.46). Even Kim Kwang-hyun played only three seasons in MLB after the fourth season with the club's consent.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Lee Dae-ho, who signed a 4-year 15 billion KRW contract in 2017, had an average WAR of 6.52 wins in the four seasons before the contract, an outstanding performance just shy of MVP level. However, in the four seasons up to last year, he contributed only an average of 2.59 wins per season to Lotte. The difference is -3.93 wins. This is lower than Doosan outfielder Kim In-tae's WAR of 2.63 this year. Kim In-tae's salary this year is 65 million KRW. Although Lee Dae-ho is considered the best right-handed hitter in professional baseball history, he was 35 years old in the first year of his contract.

KIA signed Yoon Seok-min, who left the MLB Baltimore Orioles in 2015, to a 4-year 9 billion KRW contract. Before moving to MLB, Yoon recorded an average WAR of 3.87 wins per year with KIA from 2010 to 2013. During the contract period, his average was 1.18 wins. Due to injuries, he pitched only 141⅓ innings over four years. Baseball players who use their joints extensively face increased risks of injury and performance decline as they age.

High-value FA contracts in professional baseball are gambles with very low success rates. Even when successful, the payout is not high. It is a gamble with huge stakes. KIA had to spend 1.97 billion KRW to gain 1 WAR from Yoon Seok-min. Lotte had to pay 1.448 billion KRW and 1.887 billion KRW to Lee Dae-ho and Min Byung-hun (2018 contract), respectively, and LG paid 1.42 billion KRW to Cha Woo-chan (2017 contract). This amount could equip a second-team training facility with the latest training equipment.

Teams are aware of the wasteful nature of FA contracts. One team executive said, "The expected productive period in a 4-year FA contract is 2 to 3 years." However, due to the chronic scarcity of A-grade players in the FA market, there is no choice. Increasing the supply of quality players in the FA market is theoretically the right solution. Ironically, the traditional solution preferred by the KBO and teams has been the opposite.

Director of the Korean Baseball Society

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.