Nuriho, There Is Something More Important Than Launch Success [Reading Science]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] On the 21st, South Korea's space launch vehicle 'Nuriho,' made with 100% purely domestic technology, will be launched for the first time. It is the result of sweat and tears from the development team who worked overnight, referring to old books and museum antiques, without any help from allies like the United States, Japan, or any other country. It is a precious fruit, and we sincerely hope for its success. From a technical perspective, the Nuriho launch is practically a success. The core 75-ton liquid engine already succeeded in a test launch in November 2018, and other space launch vehicle technologies such as the propellant tank and payload fairing are in the final stages of completion. Even if the first launch fails, the achievements so far will be carried forward and improved upon for another attempt. Climbing 99 out of 100 steps and stumbling on the last one should not be considered a total failure. However, the real problem lies elsewhere.

◇ Is Nuriho only half-finished?

At this point, Nuriho is only 'half-finished.' In other words, it cannot enter the space launch vehicle market due to restrictions imposed by the United States.

In 1987, the United States launched the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), centered on G7 countries, under the pretext of nuclear non-proliferation, controlling the export and import of technologies and components for missiles with a payload over 500kg and a range over 300km. Transactions between member countries are allowed, but those between members and non-members are prohibited. South Korea joined as a member in 2001, mainly to import Russian rocket engines for the development of the Naroho.

However, the United States has maintained a negative stance on South Korea's space launch vehicle development, citing concerns about military dual-use. In particular, as an extension of the non-proliferation policy, the U.S. maintains export control policies (ITAR) that prohibit the export of U.S. satellite components for launches by South Korean space launch vehicles. South Korea has strongly requested exceptions, but the U.S. refuses, citing fairness with third countries like Brazil. Exceptions are only granted to eight countries, including Japan and France, which secured space launch vehicle technology before the MTCR regime was established.

In other words, even if South Korea independently develops space launch vehicles, it cannot provide launch services for satellites from other countries that contain high-performance U.S. components. The original justification was nuclear non-proliferation, but currently, it acts as a barrier to the satellite launch service market. For example, President Moon Jae-in declared in March that he would send a lunar landing probe by 2030 using the next Korean launch vehicle, but if the U.S. does not provide components, developing the lunar landing probe becomes difficult.

Regarding this, the Korea Aerospace Research Institute recently explained in its 'Aerospace Industry Technology Trends' publication, "(Even if the Nuriho launch) succeeds, it means there may be restrictions on launching satellites containing high-performance U.S. components or foreign satellites."

◇ 'Newborn' Nuriho

Secondly, the 'future' of Nuriho. In the space launch vehicle market, Nuriho is still at the level of an unproven newborn in terms of performance and reliability. This means it lacks competitiveness. The global space market has entered a period of rapid change as private space companies like SpaceX have entered. Tiny satellite constellations, satellite internet, and 6G ultra-high-speed communication networks are beginning to deeply integrate into daily life. To meet this demand, private companies like SpaceX are developing reusable, high-performance, high-efficiency, and eco-friendly space launch vehicles. The cost per launch is expected to drop to around 20 million dollars. Additionally, NASA, the European Space Agency, China, Japan, and others are developing super-large rockets for deep space exploration, such as Mars development.

In this situation, what will become of Nuriho, which lacks competitiveness and is blocked by international space launch vehicle market entry barriers? If left alone, the technology itself will likely become obsolete. Of course, the government plans to invest about 600 billion won in four additional launches to improve reliability and is planning a next-generation launch vehicle project with an investment of around 1.5 trillion won (although it was deferred in the preliminary feasibility review in June this year). Some advocate a 'quantum jump,' proposing bold challenges such as ▲reusability ▲use of eco-friendly fuel ▲high-efficiency staged combustion systems ▲adoption of cutting-edge control technologies utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) and the Internet of Things (IoT). However, it took about ten years and 2 trillion won to develop Nuriho from scratch. How long can we guarantee it will take to develop a space launch vehicle with performance comparable to other countries? It could take 10 to 20 years. Will other countries be idle? Their performance will improve much more. If the current situation continues, even South Korean private satellite manufacturers may avoid using South Korean space launch vehicles, and Nuriho could end up 'stored in a warehouse.'

What I want to say now is not that "Nuriho is unnecessary." South Korea must clearly define the long-term goals and vision of its space development project and make diplomatic efforts accordingly. The unnecessary U.S. space launch vehicle entry barriers must be removed quickly. The schedule related to Nuriho and next-generation launch vehicle development, commercialization, utilization, and technology transfer to the private sector must be tightly planned. We sincerely hope the first launch of Nuriho on the 21st will succeed. However, we all should remember that even more important tasks lie ahead than a successful launch. This first launch of Nuriho should not be a political event but an opportunity for South Korea to reassess and redesign why space development is necessary, how it should be done, and how space launch vehicles should be utilized.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.