Daejang-dong Breakthrough Becomes a Variable in the Presidential Race

[Asia Economy Reporter Koo Chae-eun] Ahead of candidate Lee Jae-myung, who was confirmed as the final presidential candidate of the ruling Democratic Party by the party's executive committee decision, lie formidable challenges. First, he must overcome the ‘Daejang-dong black hole’ reflected in the third electoral college vote, which was close to a ‘shock defeat’ (Candidate Lee 28.30%, former leader Lee Nak-yeon 62.37%). Inside the party, it is crucial to heal the deepened conflicts from the primary process and form a one team through ‘chemical bonding,’ while outside the party, controlling the ongoing noise caused by personal issues is key.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The ‘28 to 62 aftershock’ is truly a ‘shock’ from Candidate Lee’s perspective. The fact that the result was the exact opposite of the first and second electoral college votes, where he consistently won by a majority, is widely analyzed to be due to the decisive impact of the Daejang-dong issue. Between the second and third votes, there was the decision to detain Yoo Dong-gyu, former acting president of Seongnam Urban Development Corporation.

From the viewpoint that the aftermath of ‘Daejang-dong’ is just beginning, it is a situation that raises sufficient doubts about Candidate Lee’s competitiveness in the general election. Recent polls show that Candidate Lee is trailing against major People Power Party presidential candidates such as former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl and Congressman Hong Joon-pyo in hypothetical matchups. In an Asia Economy opinion poll (conducted June 9-10, with 1,023 respondents aged 18 and over, overall response rate 7.1%, margin of error ±3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence level), Candidate Lee (39.6%) lost by a 6 percentage point margin, though within the margin of error, against former Prosecutor General Yoon (45.6%) in a hypothetical matchup, and was trailing beyond the margin of error against Congressman Hong (Candidate Lee 38.6%, Hong 48%).

Another task is to reconcile the conflicts that erupted among candidates during the primary process. The emotional rift is deep due to the heated exchanges with personnel from former leader Lee Nak-yeon’s camp. On the 13th, Party Leader Song Young-gil criticized supporters of former leader Lee for flooding with slanderous posts, saying they were "no different from Ilbe," which poured fuel on the fire for the Lee Nak-yeon side, already feeling hurt by the party.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.