[2021 National Audit] "5,000 Confirmed Cases Expected by the End of This Month"... KCDC Short-Term Forecast Results

[Asia Economy Reporter Seo So-jeong] There is a forecast that if the domestic COVID-19 '4th wave' worsens from the current situation, the daily new confirmed cases could increase to around 5,000 by the end of this month.

According to the short-term prediction results received by Baek Jong-heon, a member of the National Assembly's Health and Welfare Committee from the People Power Party, from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency on the 6th, if the COVID-19 outbreak situation worsens, the number of confirmed cases is expected to exceed 5,000 by the end of next month.

This result was derived using a mathematical model applied to patient incidence rate, transmission rate, fatality rate, and vaccination rate as of the 30th of last month.

Rep. Baek stated, "If the outbreak situation continues at the average level of the 4th wave, daily confirmed cases are predicted to increase to 3,500?4,300 by the end of this month and 3,300?4,900 by the end of next month," adding, "If the 4th wave continues, the predicted figure reaches up to 5,000, raising alarms for the application of 'With Corona' starting from the end of next month."

According to the COVID-19 vaccination damage investigation team's evaluation status as of the 17th of last month, the causality recognition rate for patients reported with general adverse reactions was 53.4% (1,764 out of 3,305 cases), whereas for death reports, it was only 0.3% (2 out of 678 cases).

Also, as of the 3rd, there were 2,014 cases of vaccine misadministration, among which 66 cases reported adverse reactions due to misadministration, but none of these cases received compensation.

Rep. Baek criticized, "The public is currently disappointed by fears of vaccine misadministration and side effects, and the government's indifferent attitude when deaths occur after vaccination," and emphasized, "The government must show responsibility so that the public can trust the government and proceed with vaccination and quarantine."

In response, Kwon Deok-cheol, Minister of Health and Welfare, emphasized the necessity of implementing With Corona, stating, "I believe it is more important to protect severe patients and prevent deaths than to focus solely on the number of confirmed cases."

According to the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters, as of the 5th, 1,038 severe beds, 452 semi-severe beds, and 9,767 moderate beds for COVID-19 patient treatment have been secured. Additionally, bed expansion is being promoted through bed securing orders in both the metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas.

The Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters added, "Currently, the available beds can respond to about 3,000?3,500 daily confirmed cases," and stated, "We plan to expand home treatment reflecting the reduction in severity rate due to vaccination and the increase in asymptomatic and mild cases, assign beds according to severity through patient classification system improvements, activate regional use of beds, and prepare plans for additional bed expansion."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.