Germany's General Election in Turmoil... SPD and CDU Tied for First Place in Polls

Olaf Scholz, German Social Democratic Party Chancellor Candidate
Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Byung-hee] The German general election, just over a month away, is unfolding in an unpredictable situation.

In a weekly public opinion poll commissioned by the German weekly Bild am Sonntag to the polling firm Insa, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU)?Christian Social Union (CSU) alliance tied for first place in party support.

According to the poll released on the 22nd (local time), both the SPD and the CDU?CSU alliance recorded 22% support. The SPD's support rose by 3 percentage points compared to the previous week, while the CDU?CSU alliance's support fell by 2 percentage points, resulting in a tie. The CDU?CSU alliance's support dropped to the lowest level ever recorded by Insa polls, while the SPD's support reached its highest since December 2017.

The momentum of the Green Party, which caused a stir by leading in party support early in the election campaign, has clearly waned. The Green Party's support fell by 1 percentage point to 17%. The pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) saw its support rise by 1 percentage point to 13%.

Early in the election campaign, the SPD ranked third in party support, even trailing the Green Party. However, with the popularity of Olaf Scholz, the finance minister and the SPD's chancellor candidate, the party's support has been rising as the election approaches.

The British daily The Guardian reported that the SPD's party support, which had been forgotten for a while, is recently increasing, raising hopes of taking power in the September 26 general election. It also noted that even if the SPD finishes second behind the CDU?CSU alliance, it could still form the government, citing former Chancellor Helmut Schmidt's case in the 1976 election. In that election, the SPD came second with 42.6% support behind the CDU?CSU alliance's 48.6%, but formed a coalition government with the third-place FDP (7.9%).

Since World War II, Germany has governed through coalition governments. With the CDU?CSU alliance's support declining, the possibility of a broad coalition involving three or more parties after this election has increased.

Armin Laschet, German CDU/CSU Chancellor Candidate
Photo by AP Yonhap News

Annalena Baerbock, German Green Party Chancellor Candidate [Photo by Reuters]

From the SPD's perspective, it is favorable that candidate Scholz consistently ranks first in chancellor preference polls. Even when the SPD's party support was third, Scholz led in chancellor candidate support. Scholz is the current finance minister and has previously served as mayor of Hamburg and labor minister.

Armin Laschet, the CDU?CSU alliance candidate, and Annalena Baerbock, the Green Party candidate, have no ministerial experience and have been embroiled in controversies, making Scholz's stability stand out in comparison.

Baerbock faced criticism for failing to report bonuses received from her party to the parliament and was involved in plagiarism allegations regarding her published book, causing her support to plummet. Laschet was hit by a scandal related to the severe flooding in North Rhine-Westphalia last month. During President Frank-Walter Steinmeier's condolence speech at the flood disaster site, Laschet was photographed chatting and laughing with others, sparking controversy. Laschet is the current governor of North Rhine-Westphalia.

In another poll last week, when asked whom they would choose as chancellor, 41% said they would pick Scholz. Only 16% and 12% said they would choose Laschet and Baerbock, respectively.

Gero Neugebauer, a political science professor at the Free University of Berlin, commented, "The high support for Scholz is because the other two competitors are showing weaknesses."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.