If This Continues, 2,000 to 3,000 People... Will the Worst-Case Scenario Become Reality?

Seoul Weekly Average Cases 387.4
Revised Level 4 Threshold Nears 389
If Trend Continues, Critical Point on 10-11th

Kim Bu-gyeom "Government Has Many Factors to Consider"
Decision on Applying Level 4 in Capital Area This Weekend
If Implemented, Effectively a Stay-at-Home Order

On the 8th, citizens who visited the screening clinic in Mapo-gu, Seoul, are waiting in line for COVID-19 testing. The Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters announced that as of midnight on the same day, 1,275 new confirmed cases were reported, marking the highest number since the COVID-19 outbreak. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Chun-hee] As the daily new COVID-19 cases hit a record high, signaling the start of the '4th wave,' analyses suggest that the upgrade to the new social distancing 'Level 4' in the Seoul metropolitan area is imminent. In particular, warnings have been issued that the number of confirmed cases could rise to 2,000, and the Seoul metropolitan area, including Seoul, has seen case numbers approaching the Level 4 upgrade threshold.

Government: "Cases Could Reach 2,000"

According to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency's Central Disease Control Headquarters, as of midnight on the 8th, there were 1,275 new COVID-19 cases, of which 1,227 were locally transmitted. The Seoul metropolitan area accounted for 994 cases, including 545 in Seoul, 388 in Gyeonggi, and 61 in Incheon, representing 81% of the locally transmitted cases.

Park Young-jun, head of the epidemiological investigation team at the Central Disease Control Headquarters, warned the previous day, "The reproduction number exceeds 1," adding, "If people do not comply with quarantine rules and become complacent, the number of confirmed cases could reach 1,500 or even 2,000." Currently, the reproduction number in the metropolitan area is 1.25. The reproduction number indicates how many additional people one infected person infects; exceeding 1 means the spread is gradually increasing.

This surge in confirmed cases also appears to be significantly influenced by an increase in testing. On the previous day, a total of 114,988 tests were conducted, with 74,787 tests performed at temporary screening centers in the metropolitan area alone. This is the first time in 182 days since January 7, when the third wave began to subside, that daily testing has exceeded 100,000.

Authorities, judging that the 4th wave has already begun, plan to implement high-intensity quarantine measures, including upgrading to Level 4 under the new social distancing scheme, if the current trend continues.

Experts emphasize the need to prepare for the worst-case scenario. Baek Soon-young, emeritus professor at the Catholic University Medical School, said, "Although the number has surpassed the highest ever, it is still difficult to say this is the peak of the 4th wave, and the scale of the outbreak is bound to grow. If cases reach 2,000, it could become an emergency situation where control is difficult due to a shortage of epidemiological investigation personnel."

As of this day, the weekly average number of confirmed cases in Seoul was 387.4, close to the Level 4 upgrade threshold of 389 under the new social distancing scheme. If the number of confirmed cases announced the next day exceeds 348, the criteria for upgrading will be met as of the 9th. Considering that an upgrade occurs when the weekly average exceeds the threshold for three consecutive days or when daily cases meet the criteria for five consecutive days, the period around the 10th to 11th is expected to be critical.

‘Level 4 in the Metropolitan Area’ Decision Expected This Weekend

Not only Seoul but the entire metropolitan area could exceed the Level 4 upgrade threshold at any time. The Level 4 threshold for the metropolitan area is 1,000 cases. The total number of locally transmitted cases in the metropolitan area was 990 → 994, approaching 1,000 for two consecutive days. If the spread increases just a little more, authorities will have no choice but to consider upgrading to Level 4.

Authorities state that since the metropolitan area shares a living sphere, adjustments to social distancing levels will cover not only Seoul but also Gyeonggi and Incheon. The government is expected to monitor the situation until this weekend and decide on whether to upgrade the level at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters meeting held on Sunday.

Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum appeared on a radio broadcast that day and said, "Experts say the sooner, the better, but the government has many considerations," adding, "If we fail to contain the spread in the metropolitan area now, the hardships endured by the entire nation for the past year and a half could be in vain."

Prime Minister Kim pointed to 'increased activity' as the main cause of the spread, saying, "It is true that young people’s activities have increased as university students have started their vacations and international students are arriving from abroad," adding, "It is not about blaming young people, but it is true that increased activity leads to transmission."

The new Level 4 social distancing, as it enters the 'pandemic' stage, will impose quarantine measures that effectively prohibit citizens from going out.

After 6 p.m., gatherings of three or more people are prohibited except for cohabiting family members and vaccinated individuals. Assemblies and events, except for solo protests, are not allowed. Workplaces, except for manufacturing, are recommended to have 30% of employees work remotely, and schools will switch to remote learning.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.