Fear of the 4th Wave... 'Social Distancing Easing' Pulled Out and Then Put Back

New Delta Variant Spread with Over 700 New Cases Consecutively on Weekend
Led by 20s and 30s... Outdoor Drinking Ban After 10 PM in Seoul Metropolitan Area

On the 5th, with 711 new COVID-19 cases reported, marking three consecutive days of cases in the 700s, citizens lined up to get tested at a temporary screening clinic set up at Seoul Station Plaza. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

[Asia Economy Reporters Seo So-jeong and Kim Ji-hee] As the number of new COVID-19 cases has remained in the 700s for three consecutive days, fears of a '4th wave' are growing. After the number of confirmed cases surged to 797 on April 23 and gradually subsided, narrowly avoiding the 4th wave crisis, a new analysis suggests that the spread among the young population in their 20s and 30s and the more transmissible 'Delta' variant virus have led to the start of a full-scale outbreak. Consequently, the government announced measures starting from the 4th, requiring vaccinated individuals to wear masks outdoors and banning alcohol consumption outdoors after 10 p.m.

Social distancing already exceeds level 3 criteria... Metropolitan area accounts for 81.8%

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters, as of midnight on the 5th, the number of new confirmed cases was 711, maintaining the 700s for the third consecutive day. Typically, the 'weekend effect' causes a decrease in testing and confirmed cases over weekends, but the previous day saw the highest number of Sunday cases since the '3rd wave,' amplifying concerns.

The spread in the densely populated metropolitan area is particularly severe. Confirmed cases in the metropolitan area were 301 in Seoul, 210 in Gyeonggi, and 16 in Incheon, totaling 527, which accounts for 81.8% of all domestic cases. The average daily number of confirmed cases over the past week was 569, already exceeding the new 'social distancing' level 3 criteria.

The Delta variant is the biggest obstacle in the 4th wave. In a cluster infection case linking a restaurant in Mapo-gu, Seoul, and eight English academies in the metropolitan area, the cumulative number of confirmed cases surged to 301, and with Delta variant infections confirmed among them, the potential for further spread has increased.

Son Young-rae, head of the Social Strategy Division at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters, stated in a radio interview that "If there are 100 domestic patients, about 7 are infected with the Delta variant," adding, "Although the Delta variant is not yet dominant, it is rapidly increasing in speed." The government plans to strengthen its response to the Delta variant by raising the variant virus analysis rate from the current 15% to around 20%, and expanding testing in the metropolitan area up to 25%.

The increase in imported cases is also adding to the burden on health authorities. On this day, there were 67 imported confirmed cases, with 60 of them coming from Asian countries excluding China. Among arrivals from Indonesia, 25 were confirmed positive. As cases surged in Indonesia recently, the government began restricting boarding not only for foreigners but also for nationals without a negative PCR test certificate starting the day before.

According to the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters the previous day, a total of 5,258 people entered the country from Indonesia over the past four weeks, with 132 nationals and 108 foreigners, totaling 240, testing positive during the entry process. Professor Jeong Ki-seok of Hallym University (former head of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency) pointed out, "It cannot be ruled out that false negatives occurred in Indonesia's PCR tests," emphasizing the need for stricter entry screening for high-risk countries.

On the 5th, as the number of new COVID-19 cases reached 711, marking three consecutive days in the 700s, a citizen visiting the temporary screening clinic set up at Seoul Station Plaza is undergoing testing. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

One in four new confirmed cases is in their 20s... Postponement of new social distancing inevitable

This wave is led by the highly active young population in their 20s and 30s. In the past week (June 27 to July 3), 964 people in their 20s in the metropolitan area were confirmed positive. This is nearly 50% higher compared to 671 and 672 cases in the 30s and 40s age groups, respectively. One in four new confirmed cases is in their 20s. Combining those in their 20s and 30s accounts for nearly half, 44%, of all confirmed cases.

While vaccination has been carried out for the elderly aged 60 and above, vaccination for the young population in their 20s and 30s has not been implemented, leading to a lower age range among confirmed cases. The first-dose vaccination rate for those aged 60 to 74 has surpassed 80%, but the rate for those in their 20s and 30s is below 20%. Especially, the AstraZeneca (AZ) vaccine, which was the most supplied domestically in the first half of the year, halted vaccinations for those under 30 early on due to concerns about rare thrombosis, effectively excluding most people in their 20s from vaccination except for a few essential workers.

Professor Jeong Jae-hoon of Gachon University’s Department of Preventive Medicine said, "With the easing of restrictions, the number of confirmed cases will inevitably increase, and postponing new social distancing measures in the metropolitan area until the outbreak stabilizes is unavoidable," adding, "Ultimately, vaccination is the only way to curb the spread of COVID-19 among people in their 20s and 30s."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.