South Korea and the US Closely Monitor Possible North Korean Military Provocations Before and After Summit

[Asia Economy Reporter Yoo In-ho] Experts predict a high possibility that North Korea will carry out military provocations around the time of the South Korea-US summit scheduled for the 21st in Washington DC, USA.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

It is expected that North Korea may attempt test launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) or submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) to test the sincerity of the new US administration's North Korea policy.

According to diplomatic sources on the 17th, not only South Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of National Defense, and Ministry of Unification but also the US government are closely monitoring whether North Korea will provoke around the time of the South Korea-US summit.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 12th, Avril Haines, Director of National Intelligence (DNI) of the United States, visited South Korea, met with President Moon Jae-in, and visited the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), which is interpreted as related to this atmosphere.

The US unusually disclosed the itinerary of the intelligence chief and reaffirmed its defense commitment to the Korean Peninsula, conveying a message to North Korea to "refrain from provocations."

In response, North Korea reportedly declared a special security duty period for the entire military. According to North Korean sources and the North Korea-focused media Daily NK, the North Korean military declared a special security duty period for the entire military ahead of the South Korea-US summit.

Daily NK reported, "At 5 p.m. on the 10th, the General Staff issued orders to the command headquarters of the army, navy, air force, and strategic forces corps to declare a special security duty period starting from midnight on the 12th for 15 days and to initiate the highest level of combat readiness."

Furthermore, North Korea criticized South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff's '2021 Hwarang Exercise' and the Air Force's South Korea-US joint airborne cargo training, claiming that "it will only result in stabbing oneself in the eye."

The external propaganda media Tongil-ui Meori (Echo of Unification) stated in an article titled "South Korean Military Recklessly Charging Forward" on the 16th, "The moves to enhance combat readiness and military exercises are thoroughly schemes to preemptively strike our Republic, further intensifying the already acute tension on the Korean Peninsula."

Domestic and international experts foresee a high likelihood of North Korean military provocations considering past cases and recent North Korean trends. They suggest that North Korea may provoke to gauge whether the Biden administration's North Korea policy leans more toward diplomacy or deterrence.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

In fact, North Korea launched the ICBM long-range rocket 'Unha-2' in April 2009, the first year of the Barack Obama administration, followed by its second nuclear test in May of the same year.

Also, on February 12, 2017, shortly after the inauguration of the Donald Trump administration, North Korea conducted a test launch of the medium-range ballistic missile 'Pukguksong-2 (KN-15)' during the US-Japan summit.

Since the inauguration of the Biden administration in January this year, North Korea has conducted at least two test launches of cruise missiles and one test launch of a short-range ballistic missile (new tactical guided missile on March 25).

Hong Min, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said, "Although North Korea has not officially responded to the US's attempt to explain its North Korea policy, it may respond in some way before the South Korea-US summit. At this point, it is necessary to monitor North Korea's military movements and the situation near the North Korea-China border."

Another diplomatic expert, who wished to remain anonymous, said, "North Korea may consider provocations around the South Korea-US summit to pressure South Korea and the US, using US pressure or South Korea-US joint military exercises as a pretext. They could choose various provocation cards such as ICBM, SLBM, short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM), cyberattacks, or additional nuclear device explosion tests."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.