Population Growth Rate Hits Lowest Since 1930s... United States Also Faces Low Birthrate and Aging Society Era

Texas Increases, California Decreases
House Seats Adjusted According to Population
Next Year's Midterm Elections Favor Republicans

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Byung-hee] Over the past decade, the population growth rate in the United States has recorded its lowest level since the 1930s. Analysts suggest that due to stagnation in immigration and declining birth rates, the U.S. has effectively entered an era of low birth rates and aging population.

On the 26th (local time), the U.S. Census Bureau announced that as of April 1 last year, the U.S. population was counted at 331,449,281. The population growth rate over the past decade was 7.4%, the lowest since the 1930s (7.3%). This is the second-lowest figure since the census began in 1790. The U.S. releases census results every 10 years.

The New York Times (NYT), citing demographers, pointed out that "the U.S. is actually entering an era of low birth rates" and warned that "it could face a situation similar to European and East Asian countries that are rapidly confronting an aging crisis."

◆ Emergence of Aging Issues in the U.S. = While the low birth rate in the 1930s was a temporary phenomenon caused by the Great Depression, this time the long-term trend of low birth rates and aging is continuing, which is being taken seriously. The Washington Post (WP) cited stagnation in immigration, declining birth rates, and aging of the white population as causes of the decrease in population growth rate.

The survey found that the population aged 80 and over outnumbered infants under 2 years old. Professor Ronald Lee of the University of California, Berkeley said, "The U.S. used to have higher birth rates than other wealthy countries, but now that has changed," adding, "The U.S. can no longer be considered an exception."

Regionally, the population increased in the North and West, while it decreased in the Northeast and Midwest. In the 1970 census, the West and South accounted for nearly 50% of the population, but in this census, it was close to 63%. In New York State, population declined in 48 out of 62 counties, and in Illinois, in 93 out of 101 counties.

This census faced difficulties due to the impact of COVID-19. The survey period was extended, and the announcement of results was delayed by four months from the original plan. The Trump administration issued an executive order to shorten the survey period as it was extended, which sparked controversy over the potential omission of minority groups from the survey.

◆ Will Next Year’s Midterm Elections Result in a Republican Majority? = The census results are expected to bring changes to the power structure in the U.S. as the number of House seats will be adjusted based on population changes by state. Bloomberg News analyzed that next year’s midterm elections could become more favorable to the Republican Party, as the number of seats increased in states that supported former President Donald Trump in last year’s presidential election.

In fact, the census results predict that Texas, a Republican stronghold, will gain two additional House seats. Colorado, Florida, Oregon, North Carolina, and Montana are also expected to gain one seat each. Among these, only Montana and Colorado supported current President Joe Biden in last year’s election.

On the other hand, seven states?California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia?will each lose one House seat. Among the states losing seats, only West Virginia and Ohio supported Trump. New York lost one House seat due to a shortfall of 89 people. California lost a House seat for the first time since joining the United States in 1850.

The adjusted total of seven seats lost or gained is the smallest since the 1950 census. Initially, the Census Bureau estimated that Texas would gain three seats and Florida two, but the actual increase was two and one, respectively. Arizona was expected to gain one seat, and Alabama, Minnesota, and Rhode Island to lose one each, but there were no changes in these four states.

Ron Jarmin, Acting Director of the Census Bureau, explained, "The population growth in states expected to increase was less than anticipated," adding, "However, the difference is less than 1%."

The Census Bureau will release detailed population statistics by state at the end of this year, after which electoral districts will be finalized. One House member represents approximately 761,169 U.S. citizens, compared to 710,767 in the 2010 census.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.