The Ruling Party Expected a Close Race with a 2-3%p Gap... Exit Poll Shows a 21%p Difference

Kim Tae-nyeon, Acting Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, and others showed stern expressions on the 7th after checking the exit poll results of the April 7 by-elections at the situation room set up at the central party office in Yeouido, Seoul. Photo by the National Assembly Press Photographers Group

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Ju-yeon] The Democratic Party of Korea had anticipated the April 7 by-elections to be a close race with a 2-3 percentage point difference, but the exit polls released that day showed the People Power Party leading by a commanding margin of 21.3 percentage points in Seoul and 31.0 percentage points in Busan.

On the 7th, the three major broadcasters (KBS, MBC, SBS) reported the exit poll results conducted by KEP (Korea Election Pool, the joint election survey committee under the Korea Broadcasting Association) for the Seoul and Busan mayoral by-elections. In Seoul, People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon secured 59% of the vote, defeating Democratic Party candidate Park Young-sun, who received 37.7%. The exit poll was conducted from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. at 50 polling stations with 11,114 respondents in Seoul. (The margin of error is ±1.7 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.)

In Busan, People Power Party candidate Park Hyung-joon received 64.0%, while Democratic Party candidate Kim Young-choon received 33.0%. The poll covered 30 polling stations in Busan. (The margin of error is ±2.3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.)

All exit polls in Seoul and Busan were conducted by three survey organizations: Ipsos, Korea Research International, and Hankook Research, and did not include early voting results.

The Democratic Party had expected an ultra-close race with a 2-3 percentage point difference in this election.

On the 6th, Lee Nak-yeon, the Democratic Party’s standing election committee chairman, appeared on CBS Radio’s "Kim Hyun-jung’s News Show" and predicted the election would be "a close race within about 3%." He said, "Supporters who had not spoken (shy progressives) have started to speak," and added, "Polls showed our response rate was significantly low, but those people are now expressing their support for us, so the poll results differ from the grassroots sentiment." He also expressed hope for a dramatic comeback, saying, "We might be able to win."

However, the large gap shown in the exit polls cast a somber mood within the party.

After the exit poll results were announced at 8:15 p.m., the Democratic Party’s atmosphere was bleak. Acting party leader Kim Tae-nyeon, Supreme Council member Yang Hyang-ja, and Assemblyman Jo Jeong-hoon of the Transition Era party quietly watched the exit poll results with their hands clasped in front of them. Some lawmakers lowered their heads, while others repeatedly clenched and unclenched their fists, showing signs of anxiety.

Meanwhile, candidate Park visited his campaign office in Anguk Building, Jongno-gu, Seoul, around 9:15 p.m. and greeted staff members. He exchanged fist bumps with the staff and said, "Thank you for your hard work."

After about five minutes of greetings, Park asked the press in the situation room to leave and held a private discussion with his team. Afterwards, he moved to the Democratic Party headquarters in Yeouido, where the election situation room was set up.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.