Lee Taek-su "If by-election turnout is in the 40% range, Democratic Party is favored; if over 50%, People Power Party has advantage"

Taeksoo Lee, CEO of Realmeter
"Swing voters in this election, if centrist turnout increases, it favors the opposition"

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] An analysis suggests that if the voter turnout for the April 7 by-elections remains in the low 40% range, it will be advantageous for the Democratic Party of Korea, whereas if it exceeds 50%, it could favor the People Power Party.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 5th, Lee Taek-soo, CEO of Realmeter, who appeared on CBS Radio’s ‘Kim Hyun-jung’s News Show,’ said, "Using 49% or 50% as a benchmark, if turnout is lower than that, swing voters such as those in their 20s or centrists are less likely to vote, so both sides’ solid support bases will vote more." He added, "If turnout rises above that, swing voters, politically highly engaged groups, then moderately and low engaged groups may also vote. Among these groups, the People Power Party candidate Oh Se-hoon has slightly more support, so if turnout exceeds 50%, the results could favor the People Power Party."

Lee explained, "So far, only voters in their 40s have been evenly split, and polls have shown favorable results for candidate Oh among those in their 20s and 30s. If turnout is low, swing voters such as those in their 20s or centrists are less likely to come out."

Referring to past election cases, he analyzed, "Although there are only two days left until the main election, if there is a major announcement or declaration causing a significant shockwave, the support gap could narrow."

Regarding voters’ sentiments not revealed in polls, such as shy conservatives or shy progressives, Lee said, "It is more accurate to call it shy minority support." He explained, "The support for trailing candidates or parties has always been underestimated." He added, "There is a psychological tendency among voters to follow the majority trend. Since Park Young-sun, the Democratic Party candidate for Seoul mayor, and Kim Young-choon, the Democratic Party candidate for Busan mayor, are trailing candidates, about 5 percentage points of their support might be hidden."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.