[AKYUNG Poll] Park Hyung-jun Leads Kim Young-choon by 27.5%p

Park Hyung-jun 59.8% - Kim Young-choon 32.4%

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] In a public opinion poll conducted just before the ban period on publishing poll results, Park Hyung-jun, the candidate from the People Power Party, was found to be leading Kim Young-choon, the candidate from the Democratic Party, by a wide margin of 27.5 percentage points in the April 7 Busan mayoral by-election.

According to a poll commissioned by Asia Economy to Win-G Korea Consulting, conducted over two days on March 30 and 31 with 1,012 adult voters in Busan (100% wireless ARS, margin of error ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level), Park received 59.8% support, surpassing the majority. Kim received 32.4% support.

Compared to the previous poll conducted on February 20-21, the gap between the two candidates widened. In that earlier poll, Park had 49.5% and Kim had 34%, showing a 15.5 percentage point difference. Park’s support increased by 10.3 percentage points since then, while Kim’s support dropped by 1.6 percentage points. In the December 12-13 poll last year, Park had 45.8% and Kim had 30.3%.

Only among voters in their 30s and 40s did Kim show strong support, with 42.7% and 44.2% respectively, closely contesting Park’s 47.4% and 47.3%. In all other age groups, Park held the lead. Notably, Park showed strong support among those aged 70 and above with 76.6%, those in their 60s with 76.2%, and those in their 50s with 58.6%.

Park received over 50% support across all gender and regional categories. By gender, 60.8% of men and 59% of women expressed support for Park. Conversely, 32.9% of men and 31.9% of women supported Kim.

Among People Power Party supporters, 95.2% expressed support for Park, whereas only 90.5% of Democratic Party supporters backed Kim. With People Power Party supporters making up 42.4% of all respondents compared to 28.7% for the Democratic Party, the consolidation of support was stronger among People Power Party voters.

Among supporters of President Moon Jae-in, 78.8% supported Kim, while 13% supported Park. Conversely, among respondents who did not support President Moon, 88.6% supported Park, and only 4.1% supported Kim.

Park showed strong support in East Busan with 58%, Central Busan with 60.6%, North Busan with 66.4%, and West Busan with 56.2%. Kim received 34.8% support in East Busan, 30.9% in Central Busan, 27.4% in North Busan, and 34.6% in West Busan.

This poll was conducted on voters aged 18 and older residing in Busan Metropolitan City on March 30-31, with an overall response rate of 12.5%, totaling 1,012 respondents. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers. The sample was extracted using weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

*According to the Public Official Election Act, the publication of poll results was prohibited from April 1 until 8 p.m. on April 7; however, it is permissible to publish or report on poll results conducted up to March 31 during this period.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.